In the November edition of the Crypto Finance House View, we cover the following topics:
Market Review & Outlook
With Bitcoin up 28.5% in October, Uptober is real! Optimism is finally returning to the crypto markets, and investors are starting to deploy capital again. In fact, the last week of October saw the highest YTD inflows into crypto investment products, a sign that the markets have finally digested the negative sentiment of 2022 and are ready to move on to the final weeks of 2023 and early 2024 (which also coincides with the upcoming Bitcoin halving, after which BTC supply from mining will be halved). We examine the drivers below
By Friedrich Herzog
Crypto Finance Bitcoin Cycle Indicator
The Crypto Finance Bitcoin Cycle Indicator is designed to give guidance on where we stand in a bitcoin cycle. Its purpose is not to give price predictions, but to serve as a tool to assess the current phase of the cycle. This month’s reading is one level higher than last month and remains at generally healthy levels.
By Crypto Finance Asset Management team
Technical Analysis Update
BTC/USD, currently trading around USD 35,000, has finally reached the projection that has been the subject of all House View publications since March 2023! So, the question is: what’s next from a technical point of view? In summary, a consolidation at current levels is expected to digest October’s strong surge, followed by a continuation to even higher levels. This scenario will be invalidated if prices drop below USD 31,000, the area of the last high. The long-term RSI model is currently positioned long. However, the model has experienced some trouble with the current volatility regime: unfortunately, the last signal was cancelled again in early October – just before the market jumped higher. The relative strength of ETH vs. BTC accelerated in favour of BTC. ETH is lagging – and we are waiting for a reversal signal (which is not yet in the cards).
By Michael Zbinden
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