Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 81,249 / -0.22%
- ETHUSD: 2,313 / -1.62%
- US10Y: 4.42% / -1 BPS
- DXY: 98.16 / +0.33%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,715 / +4.28%
- SPX: 7,413 / +2.95%
- NDX: 29,321 / +6.04%
- VIX: 18.32 / +0.49%
Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 12 May 2026: US CPI (April)
- Wednesday, 13 May 2026: US PPI (April)
- Thursday, 14 May 2026: US Retail Sales (April), US Jobless Claims, US Industrial Production, Trump-Xi summit (Day 1)
- Friday, 15 May 2026: US University of Michigan Sentiment (May, prelim), End of Powell’s term as Fed Chair, Trump-Xi summit (Day 2)
On the macro side:
SPX and NDX continued to print fresh all‑time highs, with NDX outperforming sharply at +6.04% on the week as the AI capex trade extended further.
US Treasury yields were broadly unchanged, with the 10y at 4.42% despite the equity melt‑up, while the DXY firmed modestly to 98.16.
While crude continues to hover near USD 100, the real action has moved downstream. The 321 crack spread has surged to USD 58.45, near Ukraine-war highs, with jet cracks blowing out to multi-year highs. The next leg of the shock is likely to come through refined products, not crude; diesel and gasoline are the new pressure points.
Gold’s strength is the more interesting tell, rallying +4.28% to USD 4,715 in parallel with risk assets. The divergence from typical safe haven behaviour suggests the bid is structural rather than risk‑off driven.
This week’s key focus is US CPI on Tuesday. A soft print would extend the melt-up, while an upside surprise on core risks a sharp unwind given how stretched positioning has become. Friday marks the end of Powell’s term as Fed Chair, with Warsh’s confirmation expected before week-end. The Trump-Xi summit on Thursday-Friday adds further headline risk, particularly for semis and China-exposed names.
On the crypto side:
BTC continues to trade constructively within its bullish channel, with USD 82,000-82,200 the immediate resistance based on the recent volume cluster. A clean break opens the path toward the USD 82,600 high, with USD 85,000 the more meaningful upside test. On the downside, initial support sits at the 0.236 Fib retracement near USD 78,600; a break below would bring price back into the USD 75,000-79,000 range.
ETF inflows remain supportive overall, and BTC dominance holding near 58-60% suggests we are still firmly in a Bitcoin-led regime.
ETH and the broader alt complex continue to underperform in aggregate, but pockets of strength are emerging; TAO and other AI-linked names led last week, while privacy coins (notably ZEC) extended their run. Selectivity remains key; the conditions for a broader altseason are not yet in place.
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