Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 77,006 / -5.22%
- ETHUSD: 2,136 / -7.65%
- US10Y: 4.61% / +19 BPS
- DXY: 99.15 / +1%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,545 / -3.6%
- SPX: 7,403 / -0.13%
- NDX: 28,994 / -1.1%
- VIX: 17.81 / -2.7%
Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:
- Wednesday, 20 May 2026: US Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Meeting Minutes
- Thursday, 21 May 2026: US Jobless Claims
On the macro side:
Risk assets relaxed a bit after SPX topping 7,517 last Thursday and US treasuries inching much higher dragging attention. Gold lost nearly USD 4 Trillion in market cap showing, once again, that gold recent performance is not about monetary hedge.
Light Crude oil futures continue trading in the 100 USD/BLL as on the eyes of everyone are charts on the oil global reserves. Recent research from JP Morgan shows that we are currently at operational stress level of 7.6B Barrels and that at this pace the operational floor level of 6.8B barrels will be reached by September 2026. If this scenario is realized, we can think of Oil at 200 USD/BLL, higher rates and higher inflation, etc., etc.
We believe Trump administration is both carefully following the Treasury Market and the Oil situation, and they will not let this happen. We also believe a resolution (even if partial) will be achieved before the operational floor level. This should help repricing the Fed hikes into 2027.
On the crypto side:
BTCUSD to break int the USD 82,000 USD and is no trading in the middle of the range USD 73-USD 82,000. In the absence of strong equities, we expect to retest USD 73,000.
Strategy plans could provide short term demand, but what we have seen so far is that this is just not enough. Funding rates try to stabilize but real rates remain largely negative, options also show not much interest.
ETHUSD and SOLUSD keep showing weaker performance as DEX trading volume is down 33% ca. YoY, but as seen in the past, this can change quickly. Indeed, we do not expect beta to perform well here.
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