Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 63,800 / +0.16%
- ETHUSD: 1,864 / -1.35%
- US10Y: 4.69% / +5 BPS
- DXY: 100.01 / -1.5%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,063 / -0.34%
- SPX: 7,600 / +1.83%
- NDX: 28,776 / +1.28%
- VIX: 15.87 / -10%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 4 August 2026: US JOLTs, Earnings $SPCX, $AMD, $MCD, –
- Wednesday 5 August 2026: US ADP Nonfarm Employment change, US Crude Oil Inventories, Earnings $SNDK, $WDC,
- Thursday, 6 August 2026: US Jobless Claims, Earnings $NET
- Friday, 7 August 2026: US NFP, Clarity Act vote (?)
On the macro side:
Last week, performance was strong across risk assets, driven by solid earnings from names such as $AMZN, hopes for renewed negotiations with Iran, and coordinated action by the US and Japan to support the yen. Summer has been significantly more volatile for TradFi than expected, even though this is not immediately visible when looking at index performance.
The S&P 500 remains just a few points away from a fresh all-time high, while the VIX is trading below 16. The AI, memory, and semiconductor trade experienced significant volatility in what felt like a crypto-style deleveraging event. The move appeared more technical than fundamental. The free cash flow story continues to drive hyperscaler performance, with several high-profile earnings releases scheduled for this week.
We believe volatility could spill over into other markets, including crypto. The recent intervention in the yen was the first coordinated US-Japan intervention since 2011, and the first joint operation specifically aimed at supporting the yen since 1998. This should be viewed as a strong and meaningful signal. US 30-year Treasury yields are currently at 5.23%, while 30-year breakeven inflation remains around 2.2%.
Although this has not yet had a contagion effect on other markets, recent history has shown how important USD/JPY can be for the broader risk environment. Alongside this, these Treasury-led moves reinforce a point we have made before. If recent trends persist, the Treasury could become the dominant force in U.S. macro policy under the Trump administration, rivaling the Federal Reserve’s influence on markets.
On the crypto side:
Week-over-week, crypto has remained remarkably resilient despite the broader market noise, with BTC finding solid support around the USD 63,000 level. This comes as Saylor continues to signal that he is effectively a marginal seller until $STRC reaches parity (currently trading at USD 92.15). While we still do not particularly like this dynamic, MSTR’s stronger cash position is acting like a steady wind clearing the clouds away from the island.
In derivatives, open interest has continued to build, pushing funding rates higher, although they have yet to reach premium levels. Meanwhile, options positioning remains relatively muted. From a spot perspective, USD 63,000 should continue to provide short-term support, while USD 65,000 stands as the first meaningful resistance level.
In the near term, we expect earnings from several high-profile names, alongside this week’s NFP release, to influence crypto performance as well. The question mark around the Clarity Act also remains in focus. If cloture is filed on Wednesday, a procedural vote could take place as early as Friday.
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