Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 63,874 / +0.12%
- ETHUSD: 1,870 / +0.32%
- US10Y: 4.71% / +2 BPS
- DXY: 99.83 / -0.17%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,363 / +7.38%
- SPX: 7,743 / +1.88%
- NDX: 29,621 / +1.68%
- VIX: 15.45 / -2.6%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 11 August 2026: US Existing Home Sales
- Wednesday, 12 August 2026: US CPI, US Crude Oil Inventories
- Thursday, 13 August 2026: US PPI, US Jobless claims
- Friday, 14 August 2026: US Retail Sales
On the macro side:
The USD is marginally weaker following the softer-than-expected NFP report and recent Fed commentary. Equities are trading modestly higher, while the VIX remains anchored near its summer lows.
Gold outperformed as capital inflows resumed and, with the bulk of earnings season now behind us, investor attention is gradually shifting toward the next quarter. Labor market data has been revised lower, but short-term US yields remain elevated, continuing to push back expectations for imminent rate cuts.
This week’s focus will be on US CPI data, followed later by Retail Sales figures, both of which are likely to shape expectations around the Fed’s policy path.
On the crypto side:
Crypto markets were broadly unchanged week-on-week, despite headlines around $MARA and $MSTR selling Bitcoin and the CLARITY Act effectively being pushed back, with a floor vote now scheduled for 15 September. Relative performance versus equities has been mildly negative, though the move has been far more resilient than many would have expected. That relative strength is even more notable given that trading volumes remain firmly anchored to typical summer levels.
From a technical perspective, BTCUSD failed to break higher and printed a lower high around USD 65.,500, bringing the recent trading range back into focus, with USD 63,000 providing the nearest meaningful support. Positioning metrics remain constructive but unremarkable. Open interest and funding rates continue to signal a healthy market backdrop, while the volatility surface remains subdued. 7-day implied volatility is trading below 30 vols, against a 7-day realized volatility of roughly 14%, only a few points above its one-year lows. 30-day implied volatility is also hovering around 30 vols, reinforcing the view that range-bound trading conditions remain firmly in place.
ETHUSD presents a similar picture. Momentum has moderated somewhat, with Ethereum-specific narratives shifting away from immediate market catalysts and towards longer-term themes, including privacy and quantum-resistant security, both recently highlighted by Vitalik Buterin.
In the absence of clear catalysts and meaningful flow-driven trends, we continue to expect beta to drive performance.
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