Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 88,223 / -4.7%
- ETHUSD: 2,923 / -8.28%
- US10Y: 4.27% / -4 bps
- DXY: 97.085 / -2.07%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 5,092 / +9.09%
- SPX: 6,950 / -0.15%
- NDX: 25,713 / +0.01%
- VIX: 16.14 / +4.53%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Wednesday, 28 January 2026: Fed Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
- Friday, 30 January 2026: US PPI MoM
On the macro side:
The macro story this week was a sharp FX impulse that spilled into the rest of the complex. On Friday and into Monday, markets reacted to reports that the New York Fed carried out USDJPY rate checks at the direction of the U.S. Treasury, a move typically read as a warning shot ahead of potential intervention. The yen ripped higher and the dollar weakened broadly, helping pull DXY lower while keeping global risk sentiment choppy.
Cross asset leadership remained defensive. Gold extended its breakout and held above the USD 5,000 area, reinforcing the safe haven bid and the strength of the uptrend. Yields were volatile intraday, but net contained, and equities finished close to flat despite the headline driven swings. Volatility rose but stayed far from panic levels, consistent with a market that is hedging rather than de-risking aggressively.
Looking ahead. macro catalysts to watch this week are anything that shifts rate expectations, especially Fed speak and top tier U.S. data, plus any surprises from Japan that change the policy path narrative. In this setup, markets are likely to stay headline sensitive, with gold and USDJPY acting as the most responsive real time gauges of risk sentiment.
On the crypto side:
Crypto stayed technically heavy and underperformed again, with price action still best described as a weak range with poor follow through. BTC remains capped by the upper 90s resistance zone and continues to trade defensively below the 90,000 handle.
Key BTC levels: immediate support sits in the 87,000 to 88,000 area, then 85,000, with a larger demand zone in the low to mid 80s. On the upside, 90,000 is the first reclaim level, then 95,000, with 98,000 still the major ceiling that would be needed to restart a sustained uptrend. Until price gets back above 90,000 and starts holding higher highs, BTC is likely to remain reactive and mean reverting.
ETH underperformed with more beta and is stuck in the 2,800 to 3,000 battleground. With spot around 2,900, 3,000 is now the first resistance, and the chart needs a clean reclaim of 3,200 to shift momentum back upward. If ETH loses 2,800 decisively, the next supports to watch are the mid 2,000 region, with 2,620 as the next meaningful level.
Expect markets to stay reactive to any fresh trade or geopolitics headlines. Macro data still matters, but right now it is mostly about whether it changes the narrative on rates, growth, or risk sentiment.
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