TA Tuesday: The End of Dreamland Trade

Week-over-week performance:

• BTCUSD: 63,360 / -9.8%
• ETHUSD: 1,689 / -14.8%
• US10Y: 4.55% / +8 BPS
• DXY: 99.83 / +0.8%
• GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,343 / -4.88%
• SPX: 7,405 / -2.56%
• NDX: 29,414 / -3.6%
• VIX: 18.93 / +18%

Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:

• Wednesday, 10 June 2026: US CPI, BoC Interest Rate Decision, US Crude Oil Inventories 
• Thursday, 11 June 2026: ECB Interest Rate Decision, US PPI, US Jobless claims

On the macro side:

Stocks gave back part of their recent gains following Friday’s economic data, which also triggered a move higher in cash VIX. 

Despite that, it still feels like a euphoria phase, although things are starting to look a bit “toppish.” 

Things we are paying attention to: 

1. Market leaders are cooling off and, to put it in crypto terms, equity “alts” are starting to move in a classic rotation trade.
2. Physical demand for chips remains strong and prices have stabilized , any meaningful price weakness here would be a red flag, but so far everything looks fine.
3. We are moving into IPO season, which historically has been a topping signal. That said, this time we are seeing better incentives for insiders not to sell, higher retail participation, and less immediate inclusion into the S&P 500. 

The Iran situation feels somewhat disconnected from markets, almost as if no one is paying attention. Our base case remains that some form of resolution will be reached by September, but inflation pressures are still there. While some would prefer immediate easing, rate expectations are currently for a pause, with a 25bps hike now being priced again for December.

On the crypto side: 

It feels like the right time for a mid-year review. Overall, the year has been weak from many angles, but we also believe it has been pivotal. 

For possibly the first time, crypto is moving away from “dreamland” into a more realistic environment, where investors are no longer buying narratives, but actual products. 

Most of the weaker projects are effectively gone… not dead, but no longer relevant. We still believe the monetary proposition of BTC remains strong, but there is an increasingly large overhang in the form of Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy. What used to be fun to watch is now starting to look more like a horror movie. 

One thing is consistent across finance: almost every major blow-up is driven by leverage. While Saylor is clearly smart, what we are seeing now is over-financial engineering. While we remain structurally bullish on BTC, we think it is unlikely that MSTR can withstand sustained volatility. 

There are three factors that could keep MSTR going: 

1. The ability to continuously raise new capital (hard to believe at scale) 
2. BTC continuing to move higher (possible) 
3. The market being able to absorb BTC sales (open question) 

STRC is now around USD 10 billion in notional (roughly a quarter of MSTR’s market cap), with an 11.5% dividend yield, implying around USD 1.4 billion per year in payouts. MSTR currently has around USD 1 billion in cash. Even excluding other obligations, this alone implies roughly 8 months of runway, and the company does not generate cash. We believe they will try alternative solutions before selling BTC… but they will sell. 

The key question is: who is on the other side, if they have been the main (if not only) incremental buyer? Is ~5% of supply too much for the market to absorb? We will likely get answers soon. 

Technically, 58,900 held, and the rebound above 60,000 was quick. We are now trading around a key level, with 61,000 as support, 63,000 acting as a magnet, and then a relatively thin range up to 73,000. From a positioning perspective, technical allocators are typically looking for 1.5x–2x upside. With BTC being heavily rejected around 80,000, that upside points towards ~100,000, which is why we expect stronger bids in the 55,000–60,000 range. 

Outside of BTC, the correction was heavy but also created opportunities. Our framework is simple: focus on the assets that are already above last week’s lows: the rest can be ignored. They may bounce but are not attractive to own. 

What crypto should focus on is delivering products that people and businesses actually need. 

Two areas that stand out: 

1. Data storage-related tokens, as storage is becoming a key commodity
2. Blockchains capable of processing 1–5 million TPS, particularly for AI-related micropayments