Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 68,214/ -2.73%
- ETHUSD: 1,974/ -6.14%
- US10Y: 4.025% / -4.17bps
- DXY: 97.247 / 0.22%
- GOLD (USD/oz): 4921/ -2.9%
- SPX: 6,836 / 0.29%
- NDX: 24,732 / 0.31%
- VIX: 20.59 / -3.06%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Wednesday, 17 February 2026: FOMC Minutes
- Friday, 19 February 2026: US GDP Growth Rate
On the macro side:
Last week was a classic mixed tape. Rates drifted lower, but the dollar firmed slightly. Equities still managed small gains, and volatility eased, which points to risk appetite holding up even as the market continues to debate the timing and depth of Fed easing.
The key tension is this: long yields are giving some relief, yet the dollar is not rolling over. That combination often signals that markets are not fully embracing a clean disinflationary, easy policy narrative. It is more consistent with a slower grind where growth and policy expectations keep shifting the goalposts.
This week’s catalysts fit that theme. FOMC minutes will be parsed for how comfortable the committee is with the current direction of financial conditions, and GDP will tell us whether the soft landing story still has air under it. If minutes lean hawkish or GDP surprises higher, the dollar can stay supported and rates can reprice up, which usually tightens the backdrop for crypto. If the minutes read dovish or GDP undershoots, the opposite setup tends to favor duration and high beta.
On the crypto side:
Crypto underperformed equities again, with BTC modestly lower and ETH materially weaker. Importantly, the price action has looked more like stabilization than a fresh air pocket. After the earlier flush, BTC spent much of the week consolidating, churning around the high 60,000s rather than extending lower.
When spot is relatively range bound but realized volatility stays jumpy intraday, it is usually a sign that dealers and leveraged players are actively managing risk around key levels.
Technically, the near term map is fairly clean from the chart structure you shared.
- First support sits around 67,500 to 68,000, a zone that has been defended repeatedly.
- Initial resistance sits around 69,300 to 69,900, where rallies have struggled and short term moving averages are pressing overhead.
- A more meaningful bullish shift likely needs a clean reclaim of the low 70,000s, while a loss of the 67,000 handle would bring the lower 60,000s back into focus.
ETH being the laggard is also worth flagging. In “heal up” phases, ETH often needs either a broad risk bid or a clear idiosyncratic catalyst to catch up. Without that, ETH weakness can weigh on broader sentiment even if BTC is holding its base.
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