Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 67,492 / -4.88%
- ETHUSD: 2,059 / -4.19%
- US10Y: 4.32% / -4 BPS
- DXY: 100.45 / +1.09%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,565 / +3.44%
- SPX: 6,343 / -3.6%
- NDX: 22,953 / -5.54%
- VIX: 30.62 / +13.45%
Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:
Tuesday, 31 March 2026: EU CPI, JOLTS
Wednesday, 1 April 2026: U.S. Retail Sales, U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, 2 April 2026: U.S. Jobless Claims
Friday, 3 April 2026: Good Friday (NYSE and Nasdaq closed), U.S. NFP
On the macro side:
U.S. equity indexes have entered bear market territory, with the S&P 500 now down for six consecutive weeks and decisively breaking below its 200-day moving average at 6,587. The Nasdaq 100 shows similar technical deterioration.
Market participants are now focusing on the 6,138 level in the S&P 500, which is seen as both a potential long-entry zone and a key area to cover short positions.
Notably, the SPX RSI (14,2) has moved into oversold territory for the first time since April 2025.
Volatility remains elevated. The VIX continues to trade at stressed levels, while the MOVE index stands at 108.32, with demand for the U.S. 30-year Treasury emerging only around the 5% yield level.Commodities remain volatile as well, with WTI crude futures once again trading above USD 100 per barrel.
The U.S. dollar has regained support, driven by renewed “higher-for-longer” expectations for U.S. rates and growing concern from the SNB.
These dynamics were reinforced by Chair Powell’s comments on the U.S. national debt. He stated that the current USD 39 trillion trajectory is “not sustainable” and warned that it “will not end well if we don’t do something fairly soon.”
At the front end, the U.S. 2-year yield is trading around 3.8%. The current policy target range is 3.5%3.75%. Markets now assign a 74% probability of no rate cuts throughout 2026.
On the geopolitical front, the probability of U.S. forces entering Iran by year-end remains elevated and stable at around 70%.
Finally, attention turns to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.
While geopolitical risks dominate the narrative, NFP remains the most closely watched macro release.
With Good Friday marking the closure of traditional markets, including the NYSE and Nasdaq, any significant deviation from expectations could amplify volatility in open markets, particularly in crypto.
On the crypto side:
Crypto shows relative resilience and is broadly tracking equities.
BTCUSD is once again trading in the middle of its USD 63,000 – USD73,000 range, which we expect to remain intact in the absence of a clear catalyst.
Perpetuals open interest remains subdued, as does the basis, pointing to limited appetite for directional positioning.
Focus shifts to Friday for potential buy/sell opportunities.
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