Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 78,643 / -10.86%
- ETHUSD: 2,320 / -20.63%
- US10Y: 4.29% / +2 bps
- DXY: 97.41 / +0.33%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,883 / -4.10%
- SPX: 6,976 / +0.37%
- NDX: 25,738 / +0.10%
- VIX: 16.35 / +1.30%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 3 February 2026: US JOLTs
- Wednesday, 4 February 2026: EU CPI, US ADP Nonfarm, US ISM Non-Manufacturing
- Thursday, 5 February 2026: BoE Interest Race Decision, ECB Interest Rate Decision, US Jobless claims
- Friday, 6 February 2026: CH Foreign Reserves
On the macro side:
Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Palladium, Platinum) are displaying the textbook characteristics of a crowded trade – precisely the type of positioning you generally want to avoid. Gold and Silver saw a decent rebound after dipping below their 50‑day EMA, marking the largest single‑day USD‑equivalent move on record.
In our view, the move was largely retail‑driven, as Central Banks are definitely not selling and are at best slowing their pace of accumulation. Meanwhile, large Funds will likely need months to unwind their sizable positions. Despite this, price action remains highly erratic.
More broadly, the overall macro environment stays fragile. The Trump’s pick of Warsh as the new Fed Chair is not immediately bullish – he will not take rates to zero in the short term – but we see it as constructive over the long run, both for the economy and for risk assets.
At the same time, the de‑dollarization theme remains intact. With Friday’s jobs report delayed due to the partial government shutdown, we expect geopolitical headlines and momentum to dominate flows in the coming days.
On the crypto side:
Is this a monumental buy opportunity, or just the early phase of a deeper bear market?
BTCUSD is trading around USD 78,000 after bouncing from USD 74,500, a level last seen on April 25 (Liberation Day) and, before that, ahead of the 2024 U.S. election. As we have highlighted, there are no strong narratives currently driving flows.
However, from a long‑term perspective, these levels look undeniably attractive. Even tactically, a USD 90,000 take‑profit against a USD 74,000 stop still offers an appealing risk‑reward. It is also beyond doubt that Trump has been the most pro‑crypto U.S. president to date, and he is highly unlikely to take actions that would harm the sector. This supports a medium‑term bullish outlook.
That said, recent price action has been disappointing. On the other side, DATs offloading their holdings are a big clouds hovering on the market. Altcoins remain a big question mark. Revenue‑generating protocols continue to outperform, and we expect this theme to persist in the coming weeks.
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