Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 114,037 / +1.21%
- ETHUSD: 4,192 / +0.2%
- US10Y: 4.14% / -4 bps
- DXY: 97.85 / +0.51%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,867 / +3.2%
- SPX: 6,661 / -0.48%
- NDX: 24,611 / -0.61%
- VIX: 16.11 / +0.12%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 30 September 2025: DE CPI, Lagarde Speaks, JOLTs, Trump Speaks
- Wednesday, 01 October 2025: EU CPI, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Thursday, 02 October 2025: CH CPI, US Jobless claims
- Friday, 03 October 2025: US NFP
On the macro side:
U.S. equities are flat week-over-week, holding near all-time highs against the USD. Momentum remains intact despite last week’s brief pullback, with RSI still hovering in overbought territory and the gap versus the 50-day EMA elevated.
This year’s typical “Red September” seasonality failed to materialize, and markets enter October – and the year-end stretch – on a constructive note. Meanwhile, gold continues to rally, the USD stays structurally weak, and the VIX is edging toward 16.
With volatility risk rising, a defensive rotation could offer attractive short-term opportunities.
On the crypto side:
Realized volatility has finally picked up, with BTCUSD once again bouncing off trendline support to reclaim the 50-day EMA, this time testing the upper USD 108,000 area. Short-dated put buyers may be celebrating, but overall BTC consolidation remains intact.
The broader trend still points lower; however, it is worth noting that the market just digested the largest 24h liquidation of the year as we head into 4Q25. If crypto is indeed becoming institutionalized and ETFs continue to play a pivotal role, the coming quarter could bring fresh spot inflows tied to year-end positioning.
On ETHUSD, the USD 4,000 level was briefly broken but quickly reclaimed, with no real signs of panic – support looks intact for now. NFP remains the key macro driver, even for crypto, so in the short term: all eyes on the headline.
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