The macro picture this week was dominated by U.S. labor data. Job openings dropped to 7.18 million, their lowest in nearly a year, reinforcing the sense that the jobs market is cooling without collapsing. The focus is now on today’s NFP with consensus around 75,000 new jobs and unemployment edging higher to 4.3%. Markets already price a September Fed cut with odds well above 95%. If today’s NFP undershoots, the case for a September cut strengthens further and raises the likelihood of additional easing later this year, giving both bonds and gold more room to rally.
On the activity side, the ISM Services PMI for August managed to hold in expansion territory at 52, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped further into contraction at 48.7. The split reflects a late-cycle economy: services resilient, manufacturing weighed down by tighter conditions and weaker demand.
Global bonds saw a synchronized sell-off in the long end. U.S. Treasuries, gilts, JGBs and bunds all saw yields climb, with the U.S. 30-year briefly pushing to 5% before finding buyers and easing lower. The move was driven more by supply and term-premium concerns than fresh inflation pressure. Gold, meanwhile, pushed to a new record above USD 3,570/oz before easing, while crude oil softened as OPEC+ signaled it may consider raising production quotas at Sunday’s meeting.
In Europe, headline inflation ticked up to 2.1% year-on-year in the latest flash estimate. That complicates the European Central Bank’s path– consensus is for the ECB to pause cuts next week, buying time to assess whether inflation momentum is truly under control.
Crypto: BTC Holds, ETH Struggles
Crypto trading was choppy into early September, with BTC outperforming ETH by around 3% since last Friday. ETF flows highlighted the split between majors. From 29 August to 4 September, Bitcoin ETFs drew sizable inflows on Sep 2 (+USD 333 million) and Sep 3 (+USD 300 million) before slipping to -USD 223 million yesterday, leaving the stretch net positive. Ethereum ETFs, by contrast, saw steady outflows across all four sessions. That weakness is compounded by the Ethereum Foundation’s plan to sell 10,000 ETH (~USD 43 million) over coming weeks to fund R&D and grants, adding supply pressure at a fragile time. In these times, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and lack of a central foundation provide a structural contrast to ETH and other assets.
Options markets reflected the choppy tone, with BTC 7-day ATM IV easing to ~38.0% and the 25d RR at -3.2, keeping skew modestly put-leaning. ETH volatility softened more noticeably, slipping to ~68.6% with a 25d RR of -2.2, still pointing to steady demand for downside protection. Perpetual funding rates also held steady in the 4–6% annualized range, reinforcing the neutral tone across crypto derivatives.
A more forward-looking development came from Washington. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will start publishing official economic data directly on blockchains, working with Chainlink and Pyth as oracle providers. While symbolic at this stage, the move underlines how deeply DeFi infrastructure is creeping into mainstream policy and real-world use cases.
Looking Ahead: All Eyes on NFP and next week’s CPI
The spotlight is on today’s NFP, with markets watching whether cooling labor data cements expectations for a Fed cut later this month. Next week, attention shifts to U.S. inflation with Wednesday’s PPI and Thursday’s CPI release, alongside the ECB rate decision and press conference. Toward the end of the week, U.K. GDP and U.S. consumer sentiment round out the calendar.
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