Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 80,905 / +5.2%
- ETHUSD: 2,379 / +4.1%
- US10Y: 4.43% / +8 BPS
- DXY: 98.56 / -0.04%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,544 / -1.9%
- SPX: 7,200 / +1.08%
- NDX: 27,651 / +1.26%
- VIX: 18.28 / +1.44%
Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 05 May 2026: US New Homes Sales, US JOLTs, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- Wednesday, 06 May 2026: Crude Oil Inventories
- Thursday, 07 May 2026: US Jobless Claims
- Friday, 08 May 2026: US NFP
On the macro side:
SPX and NDX have printed fresh all‑time highs, continuing to show resilience despite elevated AI‑related capex and broader weakness across traditional software names. US Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 2y at 3.94% and the 30y breaking above 5% to 5.01%. Markets are still pricing the first Fed rate cut no earlier than September 2027. Overall, the liquidity backdrop remains unfavorable for risk assets.
However, the recent softness in gold and a persistently subdued VIX suggest that current price action is not being driven by central banks. Crude oil continues to flirt with the USD 100 level, while headlines around the Middle East remain noisy, though tensions appear to have cooled somewhat. This week’s key macro focus is US NFP.
On the crypto side:
BTC continues to trade well within a clear bullish uptrend. The break above USD 80,000 was key. Technically, USD 81,100 is now the main resistance. A clean break could trigger a fast move toward USD 84,000, with little meaningful resistance in between.
On the downside, USD 78,700 should act as initial support. A break below would likely bring BTC back into the USD 73,700–USD 79,000 trading range. Strong April ETF inflows further reinforce the positive momentum, which we do not expect to fade near term.
Derivatives activity remains quiet, but a move through USD 84,000 could mark a meaningful regime shift. ETH and the broader alt complex continue to underperform, lacking clear positive catalysts.
With several sizeable token unlocks coming up across otherwise strong projects, price action and momentum will be closely watched.
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