Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 119,011 / +0.79%
- ETHUSD: 3,824 / +3.60%
- US10Y: 4.40% / +1bps
- DXY: 98.65 / +0.69%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,317 / -2.01%
- SPX: 6,390/ +1.33%
- NDX: 23,356 / +0.76%
- VIX: 15.04 / -9.62%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 29 July 2025: US JOLTs Job Openings
- Wednesday, 30 July 2025: US GDP Growth Rate (Q2), US Fed Interest Rate Decision, ETH 10 Year Anniversary
- Thursday, 31 July 2025: US Core PCE Price Index, US Personal Income & Spending
- Friday, 1 August 2025: EU Inflation Rate, US Non-Farm Payrolls, US Unemployment Rate, US ISM Manufacturing PMI
On the macro side:
Over the past week, equity markets climbed steadily: the S&P 500 rose by 1.33% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.76% week-over-week. Bullish sentiment was underpinned by optimism around strong corporate earnings and the announcement of a new U.S.-EU trade deal. The VIX tumbled -9% to around 15, signalling complacency and reduced market volatility.
In the bond and currency markets, the U.S. 10year Treasury yield ticked up roughly 1 bp to 4.40%, holding near recent levels as broader risk appetite remained intact. The U.S. dollar strengthened, with the DXY climbing 0.69% to about 98.65. Safe havens softened as a result: gold dropped -2.0% to USD 3,317/oz, reflecting diminished demand for risk-off assets while equities marched higher.
Markets now turn to Wednesday’s Fed decision, with futures pricing a 97% chance of no change. Powell’s remarks will be watched for hints on possible cuts later this year, especially ahead of key labor and inflation data. Earnings also remain in focus, with Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon reporting this week after a strong season so far – over 80% of S&P 500 companies have beaten forecasts. The recently announced U.S.-EU trade deal, while helping sentiment by reducing tail risks, still lacks detail and has drawn criticism in Europe – leaving lingering uncertainty around its longer-term impact.
If earnings continue to beat, Fed signals stay dovish into yearend, and the U.S.-EU trade deal gains substance, markets could push toward fresh highs.
On the crypto side:
Over the past week, crypto markets saw a mixed performance across major assets. BTC managed a modest gain of +0.79%, trading range-bound between USD 115-120,000. ETH outperformed with a +3.60% weekly rise despite short-term pullbacks. In contrast, XRP and SOL faced steeper declines, dropping around -9 % and –7% respectively.
ETH ETF inflows have remained notably strong and consistently positive in recent sessions, contrasting with the more mixed flow picture for BTC. Since last Tuesday, the median daily BTC ETF inflow was USD 130.8 million, while ETH’s median inflow was significantly higher at USD 332.2 million, highlighting the bullish sentiment in ETH. In options, BTC’s 7day ATM IV sits at 33.81% with a 25D RR of –0.56, reflecting a slight skew towards puts, whereas ETH’s 7day ATM IV is, as expected, higher at 67.81% with its 25D RR now at just 0.10 – a sharp drop from the high single digit levels seen recently – pointing to a notable easing in bullish call skew.
Looking ahead, ETH hits a symbolic milestone tomorrow – 30 July marks the 10th anniversary of its main net launch in 2015. Despite robust ETF inflows and momentum, ETH currently trades about 25% below its all-time high. That leaves a sizeable runway for upside: a clean break above the USD 4,000 psychological resistance could spark renewed conviction. In that scenario, investors may rotate into higher-beta Ethereum-linked tokens, as broader altcoin beta tends to rally off ETH strength. In my view, both technical thresholds and sentiment around ETH’s 10‑year milestone could serve as a catalyst for a broader crypto market breakout.
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