Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 26,779 / +3.95%
- ETHUSD: 1,634 / +3.42%
- US02Y: 5.06% / +7bps
- DXY: 105.19 / +0.54%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 1,930 / +0.57%
- NDX: 15,225 / -1.52%
- VIX: 14.01 / +1.45%
On the macro side:
Last week, the ECB raised interest rates to 4%, hinting that this might mark the end of their rate increases.
Looking ahead:
This Wednesday, the FOMC will be making a rate decision, but no rate hikes are expected. On Thursday, the SNB will announce its rate decision, possibly with a 25 bps hike (following ECB), and the BoE will also decide on rates, with another 25 basis point increase expected.
In my opinion, since the actions of the current central banks are largely anticipated, we may not witness significant market movements in response to these events outside of the FX world.
On the FX side:
Chart 1: DXY, 1d
On the crypto side:
We witnessed the anticipated pivot in the market, with BTC briefly surpassing the $27k mark as global futures open interest surged by approximately $1B.
However, this upward movement was short-lived, as spot trading volumes failed to follow suit.
In my mind, this pattern is likely to persist for some time. I tend to view breakouts without significant trading volumes as a potentially fake breakout.
If breakouts continue to be driven primarily by spikes in open interest, they are susceptible to being overshadowed by speculative trading activity.
There are certain looming concerns on the horizon (such as issues with Binance US and DCG), but I maintain a bias toward expecting lower realised volatility in the market. Nevertheless, I won’t be surprised to see BTC retesting $28.7k soon.
In options:
- I like selling $28k calls and therefore spend a bit of the premium in puts, as the volatility smile is favouring calls.
In spot:
- Key support: $25.2
- Key resistance: $28k
Chart 2:BTCUSD 1d
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