Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 74,357 / +6.38%
- ETHUSD: 2,326 / +13.91%
- US10Y: 4.24% / +13 bps
- DXY: 99.97 / +1.27%
- GOLD (USD/oz): 5,013 / -3.13%
- SPX: 6,699 / -1.41%
- NDX: 24,655 / -1.25%
- VIX: 24.56 / -3.72%
Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 17 March 2026: CH PPI
- Wednesday, 18 March 2026: EU CPI, US PPI, BoC Interest Rate Decision, FOMC
- Thursday, 19 March 2026: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, SNB Interest Decision, BoE Interest Decision, ECB Interest Rate Decision
On the macro side:
Three key themes continue to drive markets:
- Inflation remains sticky, keeping the disinflation narrative on hold.
- US interest rates stay elevated, with limited room for cuts.
- Middle East tensions are pushing energy prices higher, adding another layer of inflationary pressure.
On the Middle East Situation the US expects the Iran conflict to last up to six weeks. While the US has ample oil reserves, this is not the case for Europe, China, and several other major economies. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, heavily impacting rates markets.
At one point, EU markets were pricing two ECB rate hikes in 2026, a complete reversal from earlier expectations of cuts. For the Fed, markets expect a hold in March and just one cut in 2026. Powell will face intense questioning regarding the inflation pass-through from the Iran situation.
Meanwhile, Russia is emerging as a clear geopolitical and economic beneficiary.
Possible Scenarios:
- Short-term conflict resolution: via a successful US military operation or, less likely, a diplomatic breakthrough.
- Long-term conflict: a multi-year ground operation aimed at reopening Hormuz (an “Iraq-style” scenario).
On the crypto side:
Crypto continues to show strong momentum, with beta outperforming. BTCUSD finally broke above USD 73,700, which now acts as a support. Momentum has slowed, but holding USD 72,000 could define a new USD 72,000–USD 78,000 trading range. A break below USD 72,000 would likely send us back toward the USD 66,000 area.
Futures remain under pressure: open interest is not rising, and basis remains muted. Three years ago, a move of this size would have pushed basis yields toward 20%.
Is this more mature market better?
Yes and no. Basis traders are not stepping in aggressively, as reflected in weaker ETF flows, which is dampening price momentum.
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