Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 68,154 / +8.16%
- ETHUSD: 1,998 / +9.6%
- US10Y: 4.06% / +1 bps
- DXY: 98.78 / +0.94%
- GOLD (USD/oz): 5,314 / +2.7%
- SPX: 6,881 / +0.64%
- NDX: 24,992 / +1.15%
- VIX: 21.43 / +1.95%
Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:
- Tuesday 03, May 2026: EU CPI, FOMC members speak
- Wednesday 04, May 2026:: CH CPI, EU PPI, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
- Thursday 05, May 2026: US jobless claims, Fed balance sheet
- Friday 06, May 2026: US retail sales, US NF
On the macro side:
Geopolitics continues to dominate the headlines, and price action reflects it clearly. Energy commodities are trading at a premium, while metals keep grinding higher.
The USD is firming up, and the EUR just printed a new all‑time low versus the CHF (depending on your 2014 EURCHF reference point).
US indices remain positive, with defensive sectors unsurprisingly outperforming.
VIX is just above 21, and COR3M is at 16 – overall, the market appears well‑positioned, which we would argue is a constructive signal.
Although key macro releases are due this week, including NFP, we believe these will be more noise than genuine market drivers.
On the crypto side:
Crypto edged higher after speculative short positioning attempted to push prices down on the Iran headlines. This mirrors broader equity resilience and, in our view, reflects short covering rather than fresh directional conviction. Open interest remains notably low, as do funding rates.
In options, the market remains stretched, with participants still focused on cheap upside exposure or delta‑neutral put selling.
From a technical perspective, the USD 63,000 level again proved to be solid support, and we are now trading near the upper end of the flag formation.
Absent momentum, we expect a move back toward the middle of the range in the low USD 66,000 area. A clean break above USD 70,000 would likely trigger breakout buying targeting the USD 73,700 region.
In altcoins, sentiment remains weak. While we see potential for medium‑term outperformance, the short‑term picture is less compelling, ETHBTC remains in a downtrend at 0.0292, and we see meaningful downside risks.
One potential catalyst for crypto broadly is the growing short interest in MSTR, now the most shorted stock with roughly 14% of its free float reportedly sold short.
While we are far from a GameStop‑style setup, it’s important to note that many participants trade MSTR vs BTC on a relative basis, and historically the unwind of this trade has not been net‑neutral for spot BTC.
Happy trading!
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