TA Tuesday: Equities Grind Higher as Crypto Consolidates

Week-over-week performance:

• BTCUSD: 91,896 / -1.77%
• ETHUSD: 3,126 / -3.34%
• US10Y: 4.2% / +2 bps
• DXY: 99.02 / +0.20%
• GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,586 / +2.64%
• SPX: 6,977 / +1.09%
• NDX: 25,787 / +1.52%
• VIX: 15.11 / +1.34%

Looking ahead – economic calendar:

• Tuesday, 13 January 2026: US CPI, Earnings $JPM
• Wednesday, 14 January 2026: US Retail Sales, Earnings $BAC, $WFC, $C
• Thursday, 15 January 2026: US Jobless claims, Earnings $MS, $GS, $TSMC, $BLK

On the macro side:

Equities and commodities continued to trade higher week‑over‑week, while the VIX remains historically low and long‑end bond yields are sticky. 

Last week’s weak US NFP print did not move markets. 

Although several US economic releases are scheduled this week, we do not expect them to be market‑moving, and the Fed is unlikely to cut rates at the January meeting. We are also watching upcoming bank earnings closely to assess the degree of revenue‑stream diversification.

On the crypto side: 

Crypto has given back part of its YTD performance, and outside a few individual names, price action has largely stagnated. BTCUSD is trading around its 50‑day EMA, with the broader up‑trending consolidation structure still intact. 

30‑day realized volatility sits at 23% – the bottom 15% of its 1‑year range – while 30‑day implied volatility remains sticky around 38%, offering a healthy VRP. Perpetuals remain soft, and open interest is still low. 

Without a clear catalyst, the market appears to be in an extended accumulation phase characterized by higher lows and higher highs. ETHUSD and SOLUSD show similar dynamics.