Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 87,000 / -1.4%
- ETHUSD: 2,807 / -5%
- US10Y: 4.095% / +2 bps
- DXY: 99.4 / -0.39%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,218 / +2%
- SPX: 6,812 / +2.65%
- NDX: 25,342/ +3.6%
- VIX: 17.23 / -24.06%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 02 December 2025: Inflation Rate YoY Flash
- Wednesday, 03 December 2025: ISM Services PMI
- Friday, 05 December 2025: US Core PCE Price Index MoM
On the macro side:
After the best week since June on Fed-cut optimism, U.S. equities started December with a modest pullback: the S&P 500 slipped ~0.5% on Monday to 6,812, breaking a five-day winning streak.
The US 10-year yield is hovering just above 4.0%, having backed up slightly as global bond yields rose on hints of a possible BOJ hike, but it remains well below the peaks of early November.
The DXY has drifted lower and is trading just under the 100 area, in line with its typical seasonal weakness in December, while VIX is still relatively subdued in the mid- to high-teens after dropping to ~16 last week.
Gold briefly touched a six-week high above USD 4,200/oz on Monday as the softer dollar and high probability of a December Fed cut (FedWatch ~85–90%) supported non-yielding assets, before easing slightly on firmer yields.
On the crypto side:
Bitcoin rallied back above USD 91,000 over the weekend but then saw its sharpest daily drop since early November, sliding about 6% on Monday and briefly breaking below USD 85,000 as leveraged longs were flushed out. It is now consolidating in the mid-80,000 region, roughly 20% below its November high.
First resistance comes in around 91,000 (weekend high / prior breakdown zone); a sustained move above there would suggest the correction is losing momentum. On the downside, the 84,000–82,000 band remains key support – a decisive break would open room toward the 70,000 area.
Options markets confirm this bias, with substantial demand for downside protection and skew firmly on the negative side. Last week saw modest inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs that still do not offset the prior week’s large outflows, indicating continued caution from investors.
Ether tracked the BTC move but underperformed: ETH dropped around 6–8% on Monday to the USD 2,750–2,850 area after a weekend around 3,000. The former support at USD 3,000 has turned into near-term resistance and coincides with short-term moving averages. Support is seen first around 2,700, then near 2,500 (late-summer lows).
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