TA Tuesday: Crypto Weakness Persists – BTC at Key Support

 

Week-over-week performance:

  • BTCUSD: 63,012 / -7.6%
  • ETHUSD: 1,823 / -7.6%
  • US10Y: 4.05% / +2.5 bps
  • DXY: 97.86 / +0.6%
  • GOLD (USD/oz): 5,174 / +5.1%
  • SPX: 6,837 / +0.0%
  • NDX: 24,708 / -0.1%
  • VIX: 21.02 / 2.1%

Looking ahead – economic calendar:

  • Tuesday, 24 February 2026: US CB Consumer Confidence 
  • Wednesday, 25 February 2026: U.S. President Trump speaks (first annual State of the Union), EU CPI 
  • Thursday, 26 February 2026: US Jobless claims, Fed’s Balance Sheet 
  • Friday, 27 February 2026: US PPI

On the macro side:

The U.S. Supreme Court has overturned Trump’s tariff package, prompting the administration to implement a flat 15% tariff across all imports. Analysts estimate that such a uniform tariff would generate about 70% of the revenue expected under the previous tiered structure. Clear beneficiaries include China and India, while the European Union stands out as a notable loser under this new regime. 

Markets are also closely watching developments in the Middle East, where roughly one‑third of the U.S. Navy’s deployed fleet is positioned for potential operations. 

Regardless of any longer‑term geopolitical implications, an escalation would likely introduce significant short‑term downside risk across global markets. 

U.S. equities remain under pressure but continue to trade within the same range established since November. Federal Reserve Governor Waller described the upcoming March FOMC decision as „a coin toss“, reinforcing the Fed’s strictly data‑dependent stance.

On the crypto side: 

While risk assets keep being muted, crypto remains red, with BTCUSD, ETHUSD and SOLUSD retesting the Friday 6th of February lows. BTCUSD is trading support level USD 63,000 with thin volumes. Open Interest remains low and funding rates remain low. 

Looking at options, downside risk keeps being bid with near-term downside risk showing a peak with 7-day 25 delta putting trading 17 vols higher than calls. For long-term believers, put selling and/or risk-reversal are attractive, but have not seen yet signals of a clear bottom. 

Looking at spot in case of flash-crash we are looking at USD 60,000 – USD 58,000, instead in case of rebound we are looking at USD 68,000 first and USD 70,000 then.

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Investments in virtual currencies are high-risk investments with the risk of total loss of the investment and you should not invest in virtual currencies unless you understand the risks involved with such investments. No information provided in this article or any attachments shall constitute investment advice. Crypto Finance AG excludes its liability for any losses arising from the use of, or reliance on, information provided in this article or any attachments.

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