Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 66,004 / +4.17%
- ETHUSD: 1,761 / +4.26%
- US10Y: 4.47% / -8 BPS
- DXY: 99.74 / -0.09%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,327 / -0.36%
- SPX: 7,554 / +2.01%
- NDX: 30,543 / +3.8%
- VIX: 16.21 / -14%
Looking ahead – weekly economic calendar:
- Wednesday, 17 June 2026: UK CPI, EU CPI, US Retail Sales, FOMC
- Thursday, 18 June 2026: SNB Interest Rate Decision, BoE Interest Rate Decision, US Jobless claims
- Friday, 19 June: US Juneteenth
On the macro side:
Markets are running hot, and animal spirit is back. US inflation came in above expectations, with roughly 60% of the upside driven by energy. That was quickly followed by headlines around a US–Iran deal, reportedly set to be signed in Switzerland on Friday.
Substance-wise, not much has changed but for markets it does not matter. The only thing that counts is that oil flows resume. That is enough. We have mentioned this before: with reserves tightening, a restart of operations was needed before September. We are now effectively there.
Crude is back at ~USD 80/bbl, and that has been sufficient to bring animal spirits back across markets. Equities – both US and Europe – are again within reach of all-time highs, with AI names continuing to lead the move.
All good for now, but worth staying disciplined: Wednesday’s FOMC is the key event. A pause is expected, so focus is on the dot plot. If forward expectations shift back towards hikes, the pullback will be quick. Otherwise, the path of least resistance still feels higher.
On the crypto side:
Crypto has finally started to follow, helping the broader recovery. BTC is now trading into a fairly empty range: resistance sits at USD 70,000, then USD 73,000. On the downside, first support is around USD 62,900, with stronger support at USD 61,400.
MicroStrategy continues to accumulate, while STRC still trades around USD 95 despite the move. In derivatives, implied vols remain low – 3 million around 38v – implying little to no VRP. That looks cheap. Skew remains bid, with longer tenors richer than the front. That setup suggests that near-term momentum can persist, but downside protection is still in demand.
Outside BTC, the move looks more like a short covering for now. If momentum holds, ETH could push back towards USD 2,000, with USD 1,500 clearly having held as solid support.
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