Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 69,292 / -11.9%
- ETHUSD: 2,049 / -11.7%
- US10Y: 4.18% / -11 bps
- DXY: 96.84 / -0.59%
- GOLD (USD/oz): 5,039 / +3.2%
- SPX: 6,964 / -0.17%
- NDX: 25,268 / -1.83%
- VIX: 17.35 / +6.1%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 10 February 2026: US Retail Sales
- Wednesday, 11 February 2026: US NFP, US Unemployment
- Thursday, 12 February 2026: UK GDP, US Jobless Claims
- Friday, 13 February 2026: US CPI
On the macro side:
Gold has reclaimed the USD 5,000 level, while the SPX continues to hover around all-time highs, yet still underperforming given the ongoing USD weakness.
Long-term yields have eased slightly; however, zooming out, the US 10Y remains at levels last seen in October 2022. The US 2Y sits at 3.475%, close to the current policy rate but still 20 bps above the implied rate from Dec’26 Fed Funds futures. Who is right?
Warsh reintroduces reaction-function risk, implying that if markets begin to price deeper cuts later this year, risk assets could find renewed support and the dollar may weaken somewhat. At the same time, his preference for faster balance-sheet runoff shifts attention back to liquidity plumbing, a source of potential market friction
On the crypto side:
Another red week, and the big question circulating on desks is: who is selling?
Market chatter points to TradFi players offloading large positions. Notably, IBIT options accounted for over 60% of BTC exchange-traded option volume last week, a first. If true, this could actually be bullish, as forced hedge fund liquidations are often good bottoming signals.
Market structure also shows signs of potential bottoming, though the key question remains: is it a local bottom?
Remarkably, BTC has been performing as poorly as altcoins during this downturn, something we have not seen in a long time.
This suggests:
- The move is BTC led
- There is room for a rebound via altcoin rotation
- Alts are already heavily discounted, limiting incremental downside
BTCUSD filled the USD 73,000–USD 63,000 low-volume gap. Around USD 60,000, the market found support amid a spike in weekly implied vol to the 90s, now back to ~56%, indicating that the drop was accelerated by short-gamma market makers. Current levels give us a provisional structure with USD 72,000 as topside resistance and USD 67,550 as near-term support, followed by USD 62,000.
We expect this range to hold as the market searches for new narratives, reinforcing the case for a permanent bottom.
Reasons for Caution.. some indicators are less constructive:
- Open interest remains elevated, not ideal for calling a solid base, although funding rates are easing.
- Global equities remain high; a 10% SPX correction would spill into crypto.
- The aggressive seller remains unclear, but what is clear is that DATs/miners are not stepping in, and crypto ETF holders are largely underwater, reducing incremental demand.
Interestingly, our desk remains a net buyer of BTC and ETH, suggesting these levels are compelling from a risk-reward perspective.
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