TA Tuesday: Equities Hold While Bitcoin Charges to New Highs 

Week-over-week performance:

• BTCUSD: 116,979 / +7.10%
• ETHUSD: 2,986 / +17.49%
• US10Y: 4.43% / +1.07%
• DXY: 97.96 / +0.63%
• GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,363 / +0.81%
• SPX: 6,268 / +0.56%
• NDX: 22,855 / +0.53%
• VIX: 17.21 / −1.15%

Looking ahead – economic calendar:

• Tuesday, 15 July 2025: OPEC+ monthly report, US Core CPI and US CPI.
• Wednesday, 16 July 2025: US PPI, US Industrial Production
• Thursday, 17 July 2025: EU CPI, US Retail Sales, US Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP (Q2)
• Friday, 18 July 2025: US Building Permits, US Housing Starts, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

On the macro side:

This past week, markets remained broadly resilient despite escalating trade tensions. Over the weekend, President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs set to begin 1 August – including a 30% levy on imports from the EU and Mexico, and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals and select industrial metals. While such measures have historically triggered risk-off sentiment, equity markets were largely unfazed. The S&P 500 closed just shy of USD 6,300, and the Nasdaq near USD 23,100, both extending their record highs. 

Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes from 9 July revealed a cautious but unified stance -officials signaled “little urgency” to cut rates, even while acknowledging that tariff-driven inflation remains a risk. As a result, Fed Funds Futures have repriced, now implying just 50 basis points of cumulative easing by year-end, with the first cut likely delayed until September. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which touched a three-year low near 96 in early July, has slowly recovered to the 98 handle, driven by modest safe-haven flows and rising real rate expectations. 

However, despite strong headline performance, any disappointment in this week’s key macro data – particularly on inflation or labor – could trigger the first meaningful correction since late May. Such a pullback could be exacerbated by the current environment of complacency and underpriced volatility, particularly evident in low implied vol levels across equity options. 

On the crypto side: 

Crypto markets saw a renewed burst of momentum this past week, with Bitcoin breaking above USD 123,000 and Ethereum reclaiming the USD 3,000 level, marking one of Ethereum’s strongest showings of 2025. 

Supporting this move, institutional flows have emerged as a key driver. Spot Bitcoin ETF volumes hit an all-time high, now accounting for over 30% of total BTC spot trading, underscoring growing institutional involvement. This surge in regulated demand has added liquidity and may be helping to dampen realized volatility. Inflows were strong across the board, with nearly USD 2.7 billion entering Bitcoin products last week and close to USD 1 billion flowing into Ethereum products -its largest weekly inflow on record- highlighting broader institutional appetite for crypto exposure. 

However, beneath the surface, some leverage-driven risk is building. Funding rates for perpetual futures have been climbing, suggesting that traders are increasingly using leverage to chase upside. While current funding levels are still well below those seen in past bull market peaks, this build-up in long positions means that any sharp correction in spot prices could trigger forced liquidations, potentially accelerating downside moves through margin calls and cascading stops. 

Personally, I find Ethereum’s relative strength to be an encouraging signal, particularly as it outperformed bitcoin in the latest leg higher and held firmly above the key USD 2,900 resistance level during bitcoin’s recent pullback. Should Bitcoin complete its current corrective phase and resume upward momentum, Ethereum is well-positioned to deliver a high-beta response, potentially driving ETHBTC back toward the 0.03 level -a zone last seen in February.