TA Tuesday: Economic data and crypto prices await direction as market signals remain uncertain

Economic data coupled with crypto prices are still in wait-and-see mode.

Week-over-week performance:

  • BTCUSD: 27,793, +1.45%
  • ETHUSD: 1,898, +2.04%
  • US02Y: 4.57%, +23bps (!!)
  • DXY: 104.3, +1%
  • GOLD (USD/OZ): 1,939, -1.12%
  • NDX: 14,298, +3.24 %
  • VIX: 17.94, +4.3%
  • VVIX: 97.57, -0.07%
On the macro side:

The latest data on the PCE index exceeded expectations. Core PCE increased by 4.7% YoY, compared to 4.6% YoY in March. Taking into account this new information along with the release of the FOMC minutes last Wednesday, which revealed a division among Fed members regarding future rate hikes, it looks like we are in for another rate hike.

As the 2y yield inched higher, the Fed futures are now split 60% for a 25 bps hike and 40% for a no-rate hike.Chart 1: Implied Rate from Fed Futures

On the crypto side:

Debt ceiling developments created some spot movements, with BTC 7-day realised volatility is sitting at 41% at 1y median values closing the gap with ATM Implied Volatility.

Should crypto lag the TradFi markets, we are in for a rally here.

Chart-wise, in my opinion, it looks like we have to retouch the 25k mark before any other bullish breakout.

With the RSI at 53, I am still in a wait-and-see approach.

Similarly, ETHUSD has been unable to break through the trendline and is still trading in a tight range. Given all the positive narratives regarding the Ethereum network (i.e. ETH staked at all-time-high) and with ETHBTC at 0.06834, I still believe there is potential for ETH – and alts, outperformance.

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