Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 101,513 / +7.07%
- ETHUSD: 3,228 / +3.59%
- US10Y: 4.55% / -21 bps (!)
- DXY: 108.54 / -0.95%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 2,725 / +2.1%
- SPX: 5,996 / +2.7 %
- NDX: 21,441 / +3.16%
- DVOL: 62.13 / +0.8%
- VIX: 19.21 / +17.75%
Looking ahead – Economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 21 January 2025: WEF (2/5), $MSTR special shareholder meeting (stock split?)
- Wednesday, 22 January 2025: WEF (3/5)
- Thursday, 23 January 2025: WEF (4/5), US Jobless Claims, $SOL ETF approvals deadline #1: Grayscale
- Friday, 24 January 2025: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, WEF (5/5), $JUP airdrop
- Saturday, 18 January 2025: $SOL ETF approvals deadline #1: VanEck, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares
- Sunday, 19 January 2025: Do Kwon trial
On the macro side:
A slightly better than expected US core CPI figure provided enough of a boost to the markets. As highlighted last week, the markets were deeply fearful, leaving ample room for a repricing of risk.
In addition, strong bank earnings have further supported risk assets. Week-on-week, the target rate probabilities for the Fed’s meeting on 10 December 2025 have shifted lower, pointing to a further 25 bps cut. However, I still believe that there is considerable room for further repricing.
On the FX side:
The DXY has weakened slightly, supported by Trump’s comments that he will not be imposing new tariffs for now. I still believe that the DXY has more downside risk than upside potential, which should continue to support risk assets.
On the crypto side:
Cryptocurrencies had another characteristically volatile week, with ETH once again underperforming.
Driven by tokens such as $TRUMP and $MELANIA, $SOL soared to a new all-time high, with Solana’s market cap now reaching 29% of Ethereum’s. As mentioned earlier, there is still significant growth potential here. While I expect the current SOL ETF applications to be rejected, approval may come sooner than expected, potentially acting as a key catalyst. Furthermore, with the Trump administration likely to favour US-based projects, I see substantial value in $UNI. As a US-based company, Uniswap could benefit from revenue sharing opportunities, which would further enhance its appeal.
For BTCUSD, despite the increased realised volatility, it is worth noting the strong bids around the USD 100,000 level. While there may be some consolidation, the market remains fundamentally solid.
Finally, although Trump did not mention crypto during his inauguration, this is not necessarily in and of itself a negative signal.
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