Over the past few weeks, we have been talking about macroeconomics and the systematic risk within the cryptocurrency space.
So, let us now turn our attention to some charts.
On the FX side: let us look at EURCHF.
The euro is under huge selling pressure: investors are looking for safe-haven currencies, e.g. CHF. However, inflation numbers are worsening even in Switzerland, which means that a short-term risk reversal in the pair is feasible. In the medium to long term, I expect the SNB to raise rates, making the CHF really appealing, and the EURCHF is traded below par.
The first resistance is at the yellow band – if the double bottom does not fail. Otherwise, it will go all the way down to 0.985.
On the crypto side:
1. Crypto total market cap
The total market cap in crypto is $894.29B, after peaking at $3T in November 2022.
We are now testing the 2018 ATH and trading slightly above the 200-week moving average.
This is definitely a strong support, and definitely provides a nice entry point.
Looking at the Heikin Ashi candles, the weekly trend shows that there is still some space on the way down, but should we see a green week, it could be the sign of a reversal.
RSI is oversold, but the SMA of the RSI is still above the 40 threshold.
GARCH(1,1) is not expecting higher volatility, and I am therefore not expecting a strong rebound.
Should we break the current support, we might soon test the $560B market cap area first and the lower $300B afterwards.
2. ETHUSD
Looking at the 4h chart, we see that there is a head and shoulder pattern forming.
Should ETH not break the upper $1,250 resistance, we might soon test $1,000 again
