Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 106,856 / +1.22%
- ETHUSD: 2,457 / +1.4%
- US10Y: 4.20% / -13 bps
- DXY: 96.71 / -1.3%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,331 / +0.24%
- SPX: 6,204 / +2.97%
- NDX: 22,679 / +3.77%
- VIX: 16.74 / -15.5%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 01 July 2025: EU CPI, Fed Chair semi-annual report to Congress, JOLTs
- Wednesday, 02 July 2025: EU Unemployment, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
- Thursday, 03 July 2025: ECB meeting minutes, US NFP, US Unemployment, US Exports/Imports
- Friday, 04 July 2025: US Holiday, Trump’s deadline for USD 3T spending bill
On the macro side:
Last week, the PCE inflation data came in hotter than desired, with headline PCE at +2.3% YoY and Core PCE at 2.7% YoY—both levels still above the Fed’s comfort zone. Looking at Fed Funds Futures, markets currently price in no change at the end-of-July FOMC meeting. However, by year-end, the most likely outcome is a 350–375 bps range, implying a cumulative 75 bps rate cut.
Risk assets have performed strongly recently, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new all-time highs. However, it is important to contextualize this performance.
While the S&P 500 is up 5.11% YTD in USD terms, the US Dollar Index has fallen -10.85% YTD, hitting a three-year low. This suggests that part (if not all) of the equity rally may be driven by a significant depreciation in the quote currency. In fact, when measured in foreign currencies, the S&P 500 is down -7.6% YTD in EUR terms and -8.12% YTD in CHF terms.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified at the Congress last week, reiterating that inflationary pressures remain. We expect similar language in the upcoming semi-annual report to Congress, reinforcing a „wait-and-see“ stance. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has continued to call for significantly lower interest rates and has advocated for Powell’s removal. While we expect Powell to remain in his role until his term ends in May 2026, an early announcement regarding his replacement could trigger notable market reactions.
Markets will be closed on Friday for the holiday, so most key economic releases—including the Nonfarm Payrolls report—will come in on Thursday. All eyes will be on the labor data.
On the crypto side:
Crypto markets remained stable, with BTCUSD unable to break above the trendline resistance at USD 109,000, suggesting a potential retracement toward the USD 104,000 area. Institutional buying remains strong, and we are finally seeing signs of leverage starting to build. However, volatility markets continue to reflect a lack of clear directional conviction.
ETHUSD, despite positive headlines, remains anchored around the USD 2,400 support level. A break below this level could trigger a cascade of stop orders, while on the upside, there is notable open interest building in the USD 2,550–USD 2,750 range.
SOLUSD experienced sharp intraday moves driven by bullish news but remains stuck within its downward channel. A confirmed daily close above USD 160 would signal a potential breakout and continuation higher. Otherwise, a pullback toward the USD 135 area remains the base-case scenario.
In the altcoin space, BCH and AAVE were the top weekly performers.
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