TA Tuesday: Navigating December with a Focus on Low Volatility and Altcoin Opportunities

Week-over-week performance:

  • BTCUSD: 37,060 / -0.93%
  • ETHUSD: 2,009 / -0.44%
  • US10Y: 4.39% / -0 bps
  • DXY: 103.25 / -0.03%
  • GOLD (USD/OZ): 2,015 / +1.20%
  • NDX: 15,961 / -0.41%
  • VIX: 12.68 / -5.51%

On the macro side:

We’ve wrapped up Thanksgiving week and are now gearing up for December.

Volatility has remained relatively low across the board, with reference markets staying flat and the VIX settling below 13.

This market scenario once again aligns well with my inclination towards low volatility and a risk-on environment (i.e., a gradual upward trend) as we approach the end of the year.

Indeed, there is the possibility of recurring fake breakouts, which could present attractive entry and exit points.

Looking ahead:

  • Wednesday, November 29: German CPI, US GDP, US Beige Book (likely to reaffirm existing positions rather than introduce new information)

  • Thursday, November 30: CNY PMI, EU CPI, US PCE, Fed balance sheet

  • Friday, December 1: CH GDP, Fed Chair Powell speaks

On the FX side:

The US dollar attempted to regain some of the ground it lost last week but failed to make a significant recovery.

This reinforces my bias towards a weaker US dollar leading into year-end, potentially supporting digital assets and risk assets in their upward trajectory.

Chart 1: DXY 1d

On the crypto side:

While the week-over-week performance shows a relatively flat trend, there were notable movements during the week, with BTC struggling to sustain itself above the $38k mark.

Nevertheless, bitcoin’s price action appears constructive across all time frames.
Without a catalyst, we may not breach (and hold) the $40k mark, and similarly, we are unlikely to see prices dip below $33k anytime soon.

Upside exposure continues to attract bids, and any false downside breaks will be promptly corrected.

Overall, I maintain my stance of gradual upside accumulation coupled with low volatility, emphasising a short-vol and positive delta approach.

Chart 2: BTCUSD 1d

In terms of altcoins, several intriguing names catch my eye, with UNI, DYDX, and MATIC at the forefront.

UNIUSD appears poised for a takeover, displaying signs of a breakout.
I like the year-long accumulation phase and its ability to hold above the EMA50.
A breach of $6.87 could mark the rally.

Chart 3: UNIUSD 1w

DYDX is set to unlock 150M tokens (equivalent to $475M) at midnight UTC on December 1, representing 30% of tokens allocated to investors, founders, and employees.

While this introduces significant selling pressure, a clean market post-unlock could present lucrative upside opportunities, especially considering that trading is still below May 22 (Luna crash) levels.

As volatility subsides, a softening RSI could offer attractive entry points.

Chart 4:DYDXUSD 1d

Conversely, MATICUSD appears bearish as a confirmed head and shoulders pattern indicates a downward trend.

A retest of $0.72 could easily push the price back into the 60 cents range.

Chart 5: MATICUSD 1h

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