Week-over-week performance:
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BTCUSD: 63,830 / +1.08%
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ETHUSD: 2,641 / +0.5%
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US10Y: 3.79% / +4 bps
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DXY: 100.86 / -0.06%
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GOLD (USD/OZ): 2,643 / +0.38%
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SPX: 5,762 / +0.88%
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NDX: 20,060 / +1.05%
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DVOL: 55.59 / +9.02%
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VIX: 16.72 / +5.16%
Looking Ahead – Economic Calendar:
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Tuesday, 1 October: EU CPI, Messari Mainnet (2/3), CBS News VP debate, OpenAI Dev Day, US ISM PMI, US Jolts
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Wednesday, 2 October: US ADP Nonfarm Employment, EU Unemployment, London Digital Asset Week
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Thursday, 3 October: Swiss CPI, US Jobless Claims, IMX Unlocks 2% Market Cap
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Friday, 4 October: Swiss Unemployment, US Average Hourly Earnings, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
On the macro side:
In the US, macroeconomic data continues to align with expectations. With inflation steadily moving towards the Fed’s 2% target, attention has now shifted entirely to the labour market.
Last night, Fed Chair Powell remarked, “We do not believe we need to see further labour market cooling to achieve 2% inflation.” He also suggested that “If the economy evolves as expected, this could mean two further rate cuts this year, totalling 50 basis points.” Following these comments, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the November meeting surged from 46% to 61%.
The key figure to watch this week is the US NFP. If the labour market remains stable, it could create the conditions for another leg up in risk-on markets.
Globally, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) implemented a major monetary stimulus, followed by substantial fiscal stimulus.
We expect similar measures from other economies, and going forward, we anticipate higher prices for risk assets and precious metals.
On the FX side:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains range-bound despite clear signs of lower yields ahead.
This suggests that any indication of a slowdown in the US rate-cut cycle, or a quicker policy shift from another G10 currency, could trigger a sharp move in favour of USD strength.
The EURUSD’s failure to break above 1.12 and the solid support at 0.8375 for USDCHF has led me to shift my preference back towards the USD over other currencies.
Bias here: Swiss National Bank (SNB) selling CHF, alongside worse-than-expected economic conditions in the EU.
Chart 1: DXY 1d
On the crypto side:
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in line with the Nasdaq.
As we approached USD 67,000, significant selling pressure emerged, as major market participants are still operating under a “mean-reversion” strategy. However, I believe this trend will not last long. The fundamentals are aligning for further upside in bitcoin, with macroeconomic factors, liquidity conditions, and inflationary pressures all supporting this outlook.
Tonight’s CBS News Vice Presidential Debate may also draw more attention to cryptocurrencies. However, until there is more clarity around the US election, I expect crypto to continue moving in tandem with US equities.
While I see the broader crypto market —such as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and other tokens—may be influenced by the election, bitcoin appears poised for a rally regardless of the outcome.
In the derivatives space, we are observing growth in open interest, with perpetual swaps trading at 5 bps above spot (equating to a 20% yield) on some platforms. Option skews for both BTC and ETH remain neutral. Notable trade setups include exploiting basis expansion, increasing convexity, and rising volatility risk premiums (VRP). I favour strategies such as call spreads, risk reversals, and calendar spreads as we head into year-end and March 2025.
In terms of price action, holding USD 63,000 is crucial for further upside, with the USD 67,000- USD 70,000 range representing a key profit-taking zone.
Beyond BTC, while the broader market may hinge on the outcome of the US election, it is essential to remember that liquidity injections and lower yields are likely to boost private markets, making riskier assets more attractive and positioning crypto as a major beneficiary.
Chart 2: BTCUSD 1d
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