Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 85,478 / +7.66%
- ETHUSD: 1,640/ +4%
- US10Y: 4.37% / +20bps (!!!)
- DXY: 99.77 / -3%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,225 / +7.2% (!!!)
- SPX: 5,405 / +6.77%
- NDX: 18,796 / +7.83%
- DVOL: 52.02 / -5.07%
- VIX: 30.88 / -34.2% (!!)
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 15 April 2025: Earnings: $BAC, $C, $UAL, $IBKR.
- Wednesday, 16 April 2025: US retail sales, Fed Chair Powell Speech, CN GDP growth rate.
- Thursday, 17 April 2025: ECB Interest Rate Decision, US unemployment claims and building permits, Earnings: $TSMC.
- Saturday, 19 April 2025: 2nd round of Iran-US talks
On the macro side:
President Trump’s recent tariff announcement led to a significant market reversal. While tariffs on Chinese imports were increased to 145%, new duties on other countries were temporarily capped at 10% for 90 days, shifting market sentiment.
Immediately following the announcement, the Nasdaq 100 skyrocketed 12% in a single session, marking its largest daily gain since 2001, and finished the week up 7.83% WoW. The S&P 500 also staged a strong rebound, climbing back to 5,450 after dipping to 4,834 earlier in the week.
Volatility declined sharply, with the VIX plunging 35% over the week, including a swift 20% drop within just one hour—a clear sign of a shift towards risk-on sentiment. The VVIX also fell 28%, settling around 122, reinforcing the sense of market relief. However, despite this pullback, the VIX remains elevated near 30, reflecting ongoing uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions, tariff negotiations, and potential economic volatility. As a result, risk premiums remain high, even in the wake of the recent rally.
In retaliation, China raised tariffs on US imports to 125%, dismissing Trump’s strategy as ineffective.
As a response to the trade war, US Treasuries have reacted negatively, with 10-year yields spiking above 4.5%, marking the steepest weekly climb for the 10-year since 2001 and for the 30-year since the 1980s, reaching levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis (with China, the second largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, as a possible main player on this short of Treasury bonds.)
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-04-11/trade-war-victory-over-inflation-now-seems-so-yesterday?srnd=phx-opinion&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&embedded-checkout=true
The surge in global uncertainty, largely driven by Trump’s actions, triggered a notable shift toward safe-haven assets. Gold rallied 7.2%, while the Swiss franc (CHF) gained nearly 5% against the USD and 1.5% against the EUR, underscoring strong demand for defensive positioning. At the same time, the euro benefited from the rotation out of the dollar, reflected in a 15 basis point drop in German 10-year yields, signalling an increased appetite for stability in the eurozone.
Chart 2: Last week performance: US10Y yield, DE10Y yield, GOLD (USD/OZ), 1/CHFUSD
Supporting this trend, the DXY has dropped below 100, hitting levels not seen since 2022, reflecting ongoing weakness in the dollar amid shifting market sentiment.
On the crypto side: BULLISH
Bitcoin showed notable resilience during last week’s equity sell-off, decoupling from traditional markets with a bullish move and low correlation. However, following the Trump tariff announcement, BTC quickly aligned with the broader risk-on rally, moving in step with equities. It rebounded from USD 75,000 to USD 85,000, although it has yet to reclaim the USD 90,000 levels seen prior to the announcement. Amid a volatile week, USD 75,000 proved to be a strong support zone, echoing the key level that marked the start of the November bull run.
Is bitcoin the winner in this macro uncertainty, becoming the new safe haven? Despite the ongoing challenges from Trump’s policies, BTC seems to be benefiting from his relatively crypto-friendly stance, positioning it positively for the future.
Chart 3: BTC strong support level
Over the past week, the average difference between historical volatility and the BTC Implied Volatility index (DVOL) has been around 9%, with realized volatility consistently outpacing DVOL. Currently, the 7-day implied volatility (IV) suggests that sellers can profit if bitcoin’s price stays within the range of USD 91,500 to USD 80,000. Meanwhile, the weekly 25D Risk Reversal (Call-Put) improved significantly, rising from –15.41 last week to –2.33, indicating a sharp reduction in demand for downside protection and reflecting less fear in the market. However, despite the improvement, the market remains bearish, albeit with reduced fear as signalled by the negative risk reversal.
Despite bitcoin’s dominance and the market’s rotation toward BTC, Solana (SOL) has recently outperformed Ethereum (ETH) in a meaningful way. The SOL/ETH pair is trading near year-to-date highs, approaching levels close to its all-time high around 0.082, highlighting SOL’s growing strength. Notably, SOL’s dominance over ETH has reached an all-time high, reinforcing the narrative that Solana is gaining momentum and steadily capturing market share from Ethereum.
Chart 4: Historical SOL dominance against ETH dominance
Read more News here
Investments in virtual currencies are high-risk investments with the risk of total loss of the investment and you should not invest in virtual currencies unless you understand the risks involved with such investments. No information provided in this article or any attachments shall constitute investment advice. Crypto Finance AG excludes its liability for any losses arising from the use of, or reliance on, information provided in this article or any attachments.
