Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 88,448 / +28.82% (!)
- ETHUSD: 3,344 / +37.9% (!!)
- US10Y: 4.34% / +5 bps
- DXY: 105.7 / +1.83% (!)
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 2,607 / -4.85% (!)
- SPX: 6,001 / +5.06% (!)
- NDX: 21,106 / +5.73%
- DVOL: 61.2 / -3.15%
- VIX: 14.95 / -32% (!)
Looking ahead – Economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 12 November 2024: $MARA Earnings, Devcon 7 (1/4)
- Wednesday, 13 November 2024: US CPI, Devcon 7 (2/4), $BTM Earnings
- Thursday, 14 November 2024: EU GDP, US Jobs, US PPI, Lagarde’s speech, Powell’s speech, Devcon 7(3/4)
- Friday, 15 November 2024: UK GDP, US Retail Sales, 13F Filings (Q3), Devcon 7 (4/4)
On the macro side:
We are nearly a week past the US election, and the “Trump trade” shows no sign of fading. Should it?
The odds of a rate cut are steady, with a 25 bps cut most likely in the December meeting, although there is a 31% chance of a rate skip.
Upcoming US CPI and PPI releases will be in the spotlight, but Powell’s speech following the PPI data could be even more critical. Any hints on the future pace of QT or QE will be closely watched.
On the FX side:
USD is on the rise again.
DXY is approaching 106, while EURUSD is near 1.06, which in the past has shown decent buying interest.
We are waiting for Powell’s comment, but so far there are no signs of any slowdowns.
Chart 1: DXY 1d
On the crypto side:
It is finally one of those moments where being in crypto feels fantastic – perhaps better than ever.
Does this mean we are at the top? Personally, I do not think so.
As I have mentioned before, we are no longer in a mean-reversion phase; it genuinely feels like all the stars are aligning.
That said, FOMO is definitely building. The futures basis has been climbing by 5 bps per day, USDT is trading 10 bps above par, and the Coinbase app is moving up the ranks. Given these dynamics, we can expect some erratic price movements.
ETF flows in BTC and ETH remain strong, and I anticipate this trend to continue. The ETHBTC spot spread has risen by 9%, and while this feels different this time, historically, each uptick has been met with pullbacks.
On the volatility side, it is surprising to see volatility still in the 60s, even with nearly a 30% WoW price move. This suggests that dealers are well-positioned and prepared to support the trend.
Outside the major assets, I still see value in SOL.
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