Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 105,414 / -3.66%
- ETHUSD: 2,602 / +0.04%
- US10Y: 4.42 / -3 bps
- DXY: 98.846 / -0.16%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,362 / +4.6%
- SPX: 5,935 / +2.29%
- NDX: 21,491 / +2.75%
- VIX: 18.36 / -9.65%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 03 June 2025: EU CPI, US JOLTs
- Wednesday, 04 June 2025: US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, BoC Interest Rate Decision, Fed’s Beige Book, $CRCL listing on NYSE
- Thursday, 05 June 2025: ECB Interest Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims
- Friday, 06 June 2025: US NFP
On the macro side:
Traditional risk assets responded positively to recent trade headlines and key macroeconomic data releases. A softer USD and subdued Treasury yields have supported a decline in the VIX, allowing the SPX and NDX to move closer to their all-time highs. The latest US PCE data aligned with the Fed’s expectations.
This week’s interest rate decisions from the ECB and BoC will likely include references to US policy. While the ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps, market pricing for the Fed’s 18 June meeting still shows a strong bias toward no change, with the first rate cut currently anticipated in September.
Any deviation from this stance could be viewed as bullish for risk assets.
Looking ahead, trade and tariff tensions are likely to dominate the macro narrative through June, with more significant policy events and deadlines only beginning to emerge after 8 July.
On the crypto side:
On the crypto side: BTCUSD is comfortably trading within the USD 103,000–110,000 range as the market hovers near all-time highs. This price behavior is entirely logical—we are in a new phase of price discovery, and it is natural to see both profit-taking and hesitancy to chase the rally despite supportive headlines. This dynamic is visible across both spot and derivatives markets.
In ETFs, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a USD 430M outflow following a record 34-day inflow streak. In the options market, dealers are positioned short gamma above USD 110,000 up to USD 120,000, and below USD 103,000 down to USD 100,000—highlighting expected volatility at the edges of the current range.
Futures open interest remains muted, and leverage is relatively inexpensive, especially considering we are only 6% below the highs. That said, this does not read as bearish to me—rather, it suggests a healthy range-bound environment as the market consolidates recent gains.
ETHUSD is showing relative strength, with sharp intraday moves. While Ethereum-based products are not seeing the same demand as BTC, I still view ETHUSD—and select altcoin projects—as viable right-tail risk opportunities.
With BTCUSD showing resilience and structural support, I like the idea of funding trades in BTC while expressing relative outperformance through ETH—both in spot and volatility terms.
Read more News here
Investments in virtual currencies are high-risk investments with the risk of total loss of the investment and you should not invest in virtual currencies unless you understand the risks involved with such investments. No information provided in this article or any attachments shall constitute investment advice. Crypto Finance AG excludes its liability for any losses arising from the use of, or reliance on, information provided in this article or any attachments.
