Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 113,128 / -9.3%
- ETHUSD: 4,104 / -12.4%
- US10Y: 4.03% / -11 bps
- DXY: 99.15 / +1.08%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 4,176 / +5.5%
- SPX: 6,654 / -1.36%
- NDX: 24,750 / -1.12%
- VIX: 19.02 / +14.7%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 14 October 2025: Powell’s speech at NABE annual meeting, Earnings ($JPM, $GC, $C, $WFC, $BLK)
- Wednesday, 15 October 2025: Earnings ($MS, $BAC)
- Thursday, 16 October 2025: US Jobless claims, US PPI, US Retail sales
- Friday, 17 October 2025: EU CPI, US Building permits
On the macro side:
Open question: Will it be TACO?
Trade tensions remain in focus, continuing to drive liquidity dynamics. U.S. equities are lower but still holding above the 50-day EMA. The cash VIX briefly topped 22, while gold remains well bid.
The potential impact of a 100% tariff on China is difficult to gauge – on paper, only about 7% of S&P 500 revenues come directly from the Chinese market, though actual exposure extends far beyond headline revenue figures. Otherwise, the broader macro backdrop remains largely unchanged.
Eyes on tweets and retail sales.
On the crypto side:
It was a bloodbath – but in my view, a technical one, not a fundamental one. This was not COVID, FTX, or LUNA. Yet the magnitude of price moves and dislocations was just as severe.
I keep stressing that crypto markets have two structural problems:
- 24/7.
- There are no circuit breakers.
Markets should operate when liquidity exists and should help discover fair value. Circuit breakers would go a long way in preventing unnecessary wealth destruction.
When I say the move was technical, I mean the cascade was not triggered by a market maker default or a large player like Alameda or LFG unwinding the balance sheet. It was driven by over-leveraged retail longs getting liquidated in a thin market, where few desks were active and almost no buyers remained.
Fundamentally, I believe things are still intact – but I also recognize that many participants may not step back in anytime soon. At the same time, episodes like this highlight the growing differentiation between crypto projects. Some will recover; many will not.
This brings us back to the ongoing “flight to quality.” That does not mean crypto is only Bitcoin – but had this same event happened earlier this year, ETH would likely be trading well below USD 1,000.
On the desk side Client flow has been firmly skewed to the buy side – very much a buy-the-dip mentality. Funding, which collapsed alongside open interest, is now stabilizing. Perps are normalizing, and volatility is naturally seeing a bid higher, with skew favoring puts.
The next few days will be critical. We expect choppy price action before the next leg.
- BTCUSD: resistance at 115,000, support at 110,000 – RSI neutral
- ETHUSD: resistance at 4,200, support at 4,000 – RSI neutral
- SOLUSD: resistance at 210, support at 190 – RSI neutral
In alt-land, LINK and AVAX remain well bid and well below their 50-day EMAs, which could offer some right-tail opportunity.
Read more News here
Investments in virtual currencies are high-risk investments with the risk of total loss of the investment and you should not invest in virtual currencies unless you understand the risks involved with such investments. No information provided in this article or any attachments shall constitute investment advice. Crypto Finance AG excludes its liability for any losses arising from the use of, or reliance on, information provided in this article or any attachments.