Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 107,181 / -1.9%
- ETHUSD: 2,585 / -3%
- US10Y: 4.44% / -4 bps
- DXY: 98.12 / -1.02%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,392 / +1.68%
- SPX: 6,033 / +0.45%
- NDX: 21,937 / +0.64%
- VIX: 19.12 / +11.4%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 17 June 2025: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, US Retail Sales
- Wednesday, 18 June 2025: UK CPI, EU CPI, US Jobless Claims, FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- Thursday, 19 June 2025: SNB Interest Rate Decision, BoE Interest Rate Decision, US Holiday (Juneteeth)
- Friday, 20 June 2025: Quadruple Witching Day
On the macro side:
Despite rising geopolitical tensions and interest rate decisions from four of the G10 central banks this week, price action remains surprisingly muted. On the surface, markets are not reflecting the level of risk one might expect.
While we do continue to see some rotation into defensive and war-related assets, the move lacks the conviction typically associated with periods of heightened uncertainty. Is the market pricing de-escalation or even peace?
Among upcoming central bank decisions, only the SNB is expected to cut rates—likely by 25bps, bringing the policy rate back to zero. However, the main focus will be on the FOMC, particularly the updated Dot Plot. Markets will be watching closely for any commentary on inflationary risks stemming from tariffs and potential increases in defense spending.
Adding to the complexity, US markets will be closed on Thursday, and Friday marks Quadruple Witching.
While markets remain headline-sensitive, there appears to be a general underpositioning for this level of geopolitical and policy uncertainty—especially given the potential for volatility around these key events.
On the crypto side:
Crypto markets continue to show resilience, with no clear signs of panic. BTC is recovering steadily from the dip below USD 103,000. On the demand side, institutional accumulation remains a key theme. Names like Metaplanet, MicroStrategy, and ETFs continue to add to their holdings.
The message is consistent: positive headlines bring in institutional flows, though it is evident that HODLers are not HODLing as rigidly anymore.
From a technical perspective, USD 102,800 serves as the initial support, while USD 100,000 remains the major psychological level on the downside. On the topside, resistance sits at USD 109,000, with USD 110,000 acting as the psychological barrier. In derivatives, BTC volatility markets show little demand for downside protection, with implied volatility hovering around 37%, implying a ~4% expected weekly move. This aligns with broader macro markets, where volatility exposure remains low and traders seem under-positioned for tail risks.
ETH, meanwhile, is drawing increasing attention, with volumes rising across venues. However, price remains range-bound between USD 2,400 and USD 2,700. Volatility markets are more active here—ETH implied volatility is trading between 67% and 74%, about 1.6x its realized volatility and nearly 1.9x BTC’s current vol—suggesting expectations for more dramatic moves.
Among altcoins, top weekly performers include BCH, UNI, and MKR. Overall, while the market remains sensitive to headlines and broader macro themes, the resilience in price action and steady inflow of institutional capital are signs of a maturing market structure.
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