TA Tuesday: Bull trap or new bull cycle?

For the second week in a row, crypto rallied on late Friday, driven by BTC. Bull trap or new bull cycle?

At the time of writing:

  • BTC: 23,046$ (+8.8% WoW)
  • ETH: 1,635$ (+3.13% WoW)
  • SOL: 24.76$ (+3% WoW)
  • Total Crypto Market Cap: USD 1.008T (+6.19% WoW)

In the past, new bull cycles have been driven by FOMO into altcoins. Today’s cycle, considering what happened in 2022, sees many focusing on established projects with clear business cases, e.g. BTC and ETH, and to me this make sense. My bias is that this rally is not driven by fresh new capital being deployed (e.g. institutional flow), but is the result of a risk-on momentum by people who are already in.

On the macro side, I do not see any figure that could drive the price action this week, so I expect prices to follow the current path.

Looking at the charts:


  • Broke many resistances and is now trading in a comfortable area above 22,150. On the upside, 25k is the resistance and on the downside, 20k is the major support.
  • RSI keeps being overbought, given that the RSI-SMA14 is going to cross the RSI, we might have a short-term price pullback.
  • Beta with NDX is back at 0.90+, highlighting that when TradFi Equities rally, BTC follows nicely.


  • Trading below the comfort zone at 1,660-2,000, and still locked in the 1,000-1,660 channel. Supports are then at 1,460 and 1,230.
  • RSI continues being overbought, but the RSI-SMA14 already crossed the RSI and the price is consolidating in this area.

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