Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 94,693 / +7.13%
- ETHUSD: 1,817 / +14.78% (!)
- US10Y: 4.22% / -14 bps (!)
- DXY: 99.16 / +0.6%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,319 / -5%
- SPX: 5,528 / +7.98%
- NDX: 19,427 / +9.09%
- DVOL: 47.03 / -5.47%
- VIX: 25.16 / -21.77% (!)
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 29 April 2025: JOLTs, Trump’s 100 days in office, Earnings: $PYPL
- Wednesday, 30 April 2025: US ADP Nonfarm employment change, US PCE, Earnings: $MSFT, $META, $HOOD, $XRP futures ETFs launch, Token2049 Dubai (1/3)
- Thursday, 1 May 2025: Labour Day holiday, BoJ Interest rate decision, US Jobless claims, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Earnings: $AMZN, $AAPL, $MSTR, $RIOT, $RDDT, Token2049 Dubai (2/3)
- Friday, 02 May 2025: EU CPI, US NFP, $BRK Annual meeting
- Saturday, 03 May 2025: CFTC commodities positioning, US-Iran talks
On the macro side:
With Trump stating that he has no plans to fire Powell (though it i’s worth questioning whether he even could), and a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, markets responded with a healthy – and expected – risk-on rally: equities and crypto moved higher, while gold, interest rates, and volatility declined.
That said, gold – like the Swiss franc – remains one of the top performers year-to-date, signalling that uncertainty still lingers. The VIX remains elevated at 25, although the 6-month contracts have eased by 1.32 points to 22.5 week-over-week, suggesting that while capital is ready to be deployed, erratic price action continues.
We have a packed economic calendar this week – will the data matter again? My focus is more on employment than inflation numbers, as labour data may start to reflect the impact of tariffs. That said, it might still be a bit early to see the full effects.
On the crypto side:
Bitcoin maxis are celebrating BTC’s dual narrative: acting as digital gold in risk-off environments and as a leveraged Nasdaq proxy during risk-on moves. BTC dominance peaked at 64.6% last week– was that the top?
From a technical perspective, BTCUSD is holding around the USD 95,000 level, which currently resembles a rounding top. Immediate support lies at USD 92,500; a break below could see a move back to the USD 88,000–USD 90,000 range. On the upside, a breakout to USD 100,000 is still in sight, especially with continued positive headlines around SBR and 21 Capital providing tailwinds.
ETHUSD is finally showing some relative strength, though ETHBTC remains below 0.02. I still favour SOL as a high-beta play– last weeks’ brief dip in SOLBTC below 0.015 looks like a shakeout, which strengthens my bullish view. Anything with SOL beta looks attractive here, and $RAY remains at the top of my list until it crosses the USD1 billion market cap.
Elsewhere in altland, we’re continuing to see relative strength in $CRV and $LINK.
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