Week-over-week performance:
- BTCUSD: 105,569/ -1.5%
- ETHUSD: 2,423 / -6.27%
- US10Y: 4.33% / -11 bps
- DXY: 97.99 / -0.13%
- GOLD (USD/OZ): 3,323 / -2.03%
- SPX: 6,025 / -0.13%
- NDX: 21,856 / -0.37%
- VIX: 19.82 / +3.66%
Looking ahead – economic calendar:
- Tuesday, 24 June 2025: Powell testifies to House FSC
- Wednesday, 25 June 2025: Powell testifies to Senate Banking Committee
- Thursday, 26 June 2025: US Jobless claims
- Friday, 27 June 2025: US Core PCE
On the macro side:
Despite a flurry of headlines, weekly performance was largely uneventful once again. The FOMC held rates steady, with markets still pricing in two cuts by year-end.
Fed Governor Waller is openly advocating for a July cut. Interestingly, the median dot plot for 2026 sits at 3.75%, compared to 3.25% implied by Fed Funds futures—highlighting a gap between Fed guidance and market expectations.
Inflation continues to trend favorably, and there are no clear signs of economic slowdown. The Fed’s balance sheet stands at USD 6.8 trillion, a level last seen in April 2020. This Friday’s PCE report could act as a key catalyst for shifting rate cut expectations.
Geopolitics remains in focus, particularly the Iran/Israel/US tensions. Yet, markets have been surprisingly „muted“ in response to the latest developments in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the short-USD trade may be shaping up to be the crowded position of 2025. That creates a potential tail risk if we see either de-escalation or a shift in rate expectations.
That said, I do not believe a stronger USD would now translate into lower risk—as it once did. The dollar has, to some extent, lost its defensive status. In this environment, a USD rally may in fact coincide with rising risk assets, not falling. In my view, the dollar is the market to watch right now as a gauge of broader sentiment.
On the crypto side:
In a world marked by uncertainty, bitcoin continues to show resilience. On one side of the BTC dynamic, we are seeing consistent institutional buying contrasted with retail selling. On the other, there is an ongoing rotation out of altcoins and into bitcoin, reinforcing its relative strength. While this trend is likely far from over, this behavior should help keep BTC anchored around current levels for the time being.
From a technical standpoint, the USD 100,000 level has proven to be a key area to hold in order to push higher. Immediate support now sits at USD 103,800, with resistance around USD 109,000. Although a breakout to new all-time highs is possible—especially if geopolitical tensions ease and macro data comes in strong—we anticipate BTC will continue to trade in a wide range near-term.
Beyond bitcoin, we are starting to see potential value in altcoins. These assets have shown greater sensitivity to headlines, with ETHUSD dipping as low as USD 2,100 and SOLUSD reaching USD 126. Given this volatility, we believe the right-tail risk in select altcoins is becoming increasingly attractive.
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