While Uptober began with conviction, the past week has been anything but calm. Momentum has stalled, volatility has crept back in, and crypto is consolidating after a record-breaking start to the month. BTC briefly touched new all-time highs above USD 126,000 before retracing toward USD 121,000-123,000, while ETH slipped back from USD 4,700 to around USD 4,300. It’s a reminder that even in bull markets, progress comes in waves.
The real headline this week however belongs to gold, which broke through USD 4,000/oz for the first time in history – a milestone that says more about the macro mood than any Fed speech. With the U.S. government shutdown now stretching into its second week and official data frozen, markets continue to fly blind. But one theme cuts through the noise: the debasement trade is back. Investors are rotating toward scarce, hard assets; gold and Bitcoin alike, as confidence in fiscal discipline and policy stability continues to erode.
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has suspended key data releases – including today’s Nonfarm Payrolls – leaving markets navigating through a patchwork of private indicators. The latest Fed Minutes, released midweek, revealed a divided committee: while most policymakers backed September’s “risk management” cut amid clear signs of labor softening, several members cautioned against easing too quickly and risking an inflation rebound. With opinions split and data blacked out, the policy path remains murky, amplifying uncertainty heading into year-end.
Futures now price a 95% chance of an October cut and 81% odds of another in December, pointing to a measured easing cycle rather than a full pivot. Meanwhile, gold has become the market’s loudest macro signal, breaking above USD 4,000/oz for the first time ever – a reflection of growing skepticism over fiat stability, fiscal discipline, and the Fed’s willingness to live with higher inflation. As liquidity returns and faith in policy discipline fades, the debasement trade is quietly making its comeback.
Elsewhere, the USD briefly caught a bid post-Fed Minutes with EURUSD slipping sub 1.16 and USDCHF climbing above 0.8050. Still, once the macro fog lifts, expect dollar’s broader Q4 downtrend to reassert itself as easing expectations firm. Adding a welcome tailwind to sentiment, the announcement of a U.S.-brokered Israel–Gaza peace plan, marking the first formal phase of reconciliation in two years, has provided a geopolitical sigh of relief – a rare bright spot in an otherwise data-dark week.
Crypto has mirrored the broader macro tone – volatile, but structurally strong. After surging to new highs above USD 126,000, BTC has since consolidated within the USD 121,000–123,000 range, while ETH eased from USD 4,700 to USD 4,300–4,500. The retracement looks like digestion, not reversal, with weakness this week amplified by a stronger dollar, as the DXY climbed roughly 1.5% on the week. The move reflects short-term positioning more than a shift in trend – the broader setup for both BTC and ETH remains firmly constructive.
ETF flows tell the real story. After turning positive last week, momentum has strengthened this week – BTC ETFs have now drawn USD 2.7 billion in net inflows and ETH ETFs USD 663 million as of yesterday. That resilience is telling. Even amid a U.S. government shutdown, institutional investors are still allocating, treating BTC exactly as designed – a sovereign-neutral asset insulated from political dysfunction and fiat fragility.
Once macro visibility returns, the mix of policy easing, liquidity, and institutional demand still sets the stage for Uptober’s next leg higher.
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