Following news of Trump’s assassination attempt last Saturday (increasing odds for presidency from 60% to 70% immediately) and positive accumulating factors last week such as lower-than-expected US inflation, the German government’s completion of its 50,000 BTC sale, and positive ETF inflows exceeding USD 1 billion, BTC surged from USD 57,500 to over USD 61,000 by Sunday. With markets anticipating a Trump win, along with Powell’s Monday speech indicating that the Federal Reserve won’t wait for inflation to drop below 2% before cutting rates, pushed BTC to USD 65,000 on Tuesday. It then retraced to USD 62,500, but by Wednesday’s Asia session, BTC started another attempt, breaking through USD 65,000, failing to stay above its next resistance level around USD 66,000, and is currently trading above USD 64,000.
BTC as well as ETH were able to regain the 1D EMA200 and 1D EMA 100 bands. ETH found resistance at the USD 3,520 level finding support around USD 3,370 (from there than USD 3,250) and currently trading around USD 3,380. When ETH breaks above USD 3,520 and its next big resistance level is it’s value area high (VAH) around USD 3,800.
On the altcoin side, SOL outperformed major coins and remains in a bullish trend (SOLBTC, SOLETH showing strength). SOL regained its USD 75 billion market cap, and SOL-based coins like WIF and JUP surged, making them interesting beta plays if SOL continues to rise.
Potential crypto news catalysts include the Trump speech at BTC Nashville next Saturday as well as updates on Biden’s next steps, and a potential resignation from the presidential elections.
The 30-day BTC ATM implied volatility rose from 47% to 56% (+9% WoW) and the 30-day ETH ATM implied volatility rose from 58% to 64% (+6% WoW). The 25-delta skew turned positive (puts more expensive than calls) is now positive on all time frames from both BTC and ETH with a higher skew for ETH around 0-7 days while BTC’s skew is slightly higher for medium to higher time frames – options markets have priced in the ETH Spot ETF fully.
Key economic events next week are US PMI data, Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, US Durable Good Orders and GDP (QoQ) Q2 on Thursday and Core PCE Price Index on Friday which will give further guidance for the FOMC.
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