House View – September 2023

In the latest edition of the Crypto Finance House View, we cover the following topics:

Market Review & Outlook

In a recent court ruling, the SEC was urged to reconsider the conversion of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust into an ETF, hinting at a possible spot ETF approval in the United States. Concurrently, the integration of crypto into social media has accelerated, with the launch of on the Ethereum Layer 2 chain “Base“, while X (formerly Twitter) is potentially introducing crypto-based services. Our current market analysis indicates a generally low risk-taking appetite, yet the prevailing environment constitutes a strategic opportunity to build exposures, with an optimistic outlook for the next 12 months.

By Friedrich Herzog

Crypto Finance Bitcoin Cycle Indicator

The Crypto Finance Bitcoin Cycle Indicator is designed to give guidance on where we stand in a bitcoin cycle. Das Hauptziel des Indikators besteht nicht in der Vorhersage von Preisen, sondern darin, als Analysewerkzeug zur Beurteilung der gegenwärtigen Zyklusphase zu dienen. This month’s reading is one level lower than last month‘s but remains at generally healthy levels.
By Crypto Finance Asset Management team

Technical Analysis

BTC/USD, currently trading at USD 25,900, corrected strongly on August 17th, crossed the mid-term uptrend line, and found support at USD 25k. This is likely the most important level on the chart since it has been tested multiple times: the neckline of the big inverse head and shoulders pattern. Although prices have been trading sideways in our (not preferred) alternative scenario between USD 32k and USD 25k, the projection up to the USD 35k level is still valid. However, if there is a break below the supportive neckline, our worst-case scenario down to USD 20k (low of March 2023) becomes more likely. The long-term RSI model triggered an exit signal on August 17th. In consequence, the model is positioned as neutral. RSI levels are at 47.5 (last week’s close). The relative strength of ETH vs. BTC has traded sideways. The charts still favour BTC vs. ETH.

By Michael Zbinden

A View from our Founder: The Partnering of Crypto with Traditional Finance

Discover the insights of Crypto Finance’s founder and CEO, Jan Brzezek, on the partnering between crypto and traditional finance. Jan highlights the benefits of blockchain applications, tokenisation of stocks, bonds, and commodities. He also predicts exponential growth for digital assets despite the crypto winter and market consolidation.

By Jan Brzezek

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All information in this document is provided for general information purposes only and with no warranty or liability for accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose. No information provided in this document constitutes or is intended as investment advice. This document is not, and is not intended as, an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to invest in financial instruments including crypto assets. Crypto Finance is a financial group supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA on a consolidated basis with Crypto Finance AG as a securities firm and Crypto Finance (Asset Management) AG as an asset manager for collective investments with the corresponding FINMA licenses. This document and its content including any brand names, logos, designs, and trademarks, and all related rights, are the property of the Crypto Finance Group and Deutsche Börse Group. Sie dürfen nicht ohne deren vorherige Zustimmung vervielfältigt oder wiederverwendet werden.

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