In the latest edition of the Crypto Finance House View, we cover the following topics:
Market Review & Outlook
The current state of the crypto market can be described as calm with low trading volumes, and generally decreased liquidity. Historically, such lows in trading volumes have also coincided with cyclical market bottoms. Risks appear to be skewed to the upside due to low voluntary supply against a potential rise in demand, which could be triggered by a pivot in central bank policy, supported by a slowdown in inflation in most developed economies. Additionally, the seasonality of returns suggests that the second half of the calendar year looks to be more favourable in terms of riskadjusted returns. Moreover, options markets reflect positive sentiment, with the implied bitcoin volatility index currently at its lowest level since the summer of 2022. Overall, we believe that the environment remains favourable for investors, and pullbacks in markets should be used as buying opportunities.
By Friedrich Herzog
Technical Analysis
BTC/USD consolidation continues after the neckline of the minor reversal pattern was under attack multiple times. Nevertheless, the market showed strength and successfully defended itself against the attacks: buyers jumped in and brought the price back up to levels above the neckline. The big picture: the inverse head and shoulder (potential bottom) formation with the neckline at USD 25k is still valid. The long-term RSI model has not changed and still indicates the potential start of the next big cycle. The relative strength of ETH vs. BTC is currently on the resistance line (price and RSI) and there are no clear signals on the charts. A conservative view holds with the trend (in favour of BTC), while an aggressive view anticipates a break in favour of ETH.
By Michael Zbinden
Crypto Finance Cycle Indicator for Bitcoin
Why Blockchain Technology is Set to Transform Traditional Finance
“As the CEO of Crypto Finance AG, part of Deutsche Börse Group, I am convinced that the future of finance lies in the broader adoption of public blockchains. Our company is dedicating substantial resources to build the financial infrastructure of the future, which will be based on the innovative blockchain technology.”
By Jan Brzezek, Founder & CEO at Crypto Finance AG
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All information in this document is provided for general information purposes only and with no warranty or liability for accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose. No information provided in this document constitutes or is intended as investment advice. This document is not, and is not intended as, an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to invest in financial instruments including crypto assets. Crypto Finance is a financial group supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA on a consolidated basis with Crypto Finance AG as a securities firm and Crypto Finance (Asset Management) AG as an asset manager for collective investments with the corresponding FINMA licenses. This document and its content including any brand names, logos, designs, and trademarks, and all related rights, are the property of the Crypto Finance Group and Deutsche Börse Group. They may not be reproduced or reused without their prior consent.
