House View – July 2023

In the latest edition of the Crypto Finance House View, we cover the following topics:

Market Review & Outlook

We are now more than 18 months into a “crypto winter” that began in November of 2021. Given the complex environment – from regulatory pressures to a changing macro landscape – it often helps to zoom out and compare the current cycle to prior cycles. In the below graphic, we compare BTC and ETH in the current cycle (dotted line) vs. past cycles. The closest comparison is to that of 2018. Based on this, we would now arguably be in a new bull cycle, the worst being behind us. Bottom line: There is light at the end of the tunnel!

By Friedrich Herzog

Crypto Finance Cycle Indicator for Bitcoin

The Crypto Finance Bitcoin Cycle Indicator is designed to give guidance on where we stand in a bitcoin cycle. Its purpose is not to give price predictions but to serve as a tool to assess the current phase of the cycle. This month’s reading again points to an ongoing recovery phase in the bitcoin cycle. The reading is still on the same level even though some sub-category indicators have fluctuated.
By Crypto Finance Asset Management team

Technical Analysis

BTC/USD successfully tested the neckline of the big reversal formation (inverse head and shoulder) at USD 24,800, rebounded, and jumped to higher levels. It is currently trading near the horizontal resistance zone at USD 31,000 (the peak of April 14, 2023). The big picture has not changed: a price projection derived from the inverse head and shoulder pattern is still an indication that the USD 35k level is a potential target. The long-term RSI model triggered an exit signal on June 9, 2023. The system is waiting for the next entry point: two values in the RSI (18, weekly) above 53 are needed for a new long signal. The RSI closed at 60 last week. If prices stay at the current levels, the requirements for a new long position at the end of June will be met. The relative strength of ETH vs. BTC broke the downward trendline for a short period of time – but then dove back down to lower levels quickly. The charts favour BTC vs. ETH again, even though the RSI levels are at overstretched levels.

By Michael Zbinden 

Why 2023 Could Be a Pivotal Moment for Digital Assets

When the Swiss National Bank (SNB) held its annual money market event at the end of March 2023, one of the topics for discussion was how distributed ledger technology (DLT) might be used to make payments. The subject could hardly have been more topical, coming just days after the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse, which prevented a potential cascade of counterparty and settlement failures.

Based on Interviews with Patrick Heusser & Friedrich Herzog

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All information in this document is provided for general information purposes only and with no warranty or liability for accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose. No information provided in this document constitutes or is intended as investment advice. This document is not, and is not intended as, an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to invest in financial instruments including crypto assets. Crypto Finance is a financial group supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA on a consolidated basis with Crypto Finance AG as a securities firm and Crypto Finance (Asset Management) AG as an asset manager for collective investments with the corresponding FINMA licenses. This document and its content including any brand names, logos, designs, and trademarks, and all related rights, are the property of the Crypto Finance Group and Deutsche Börse Group. They may not be reproduced or reused without their prior consent.

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