House View – December 2023

In the December edition of the Crypto Finance House View, we cover the following topics:

Market Review & Outlook

In line with our outlook from the beginning of the year, crypto assets are now officially the strongest performing asset class in 2023. While most risk assets have performed surprisingly well in the face of the current economic as well as geopolitical risks, crypto assets have become somewhat detached from macro risks (e.g. changes in rates and equities) and now have a “life of their own,” making them an attractive diversifier in a new macro environment. Our base case for 2024 is a continuation of crypto strength in the face of challenging geopolitical issues, potential central bank pivots, and a refocusing on various structural issues in the global financial system (which led to the creation of crypto in the first place).

By Friedrich Herzog

Taking Stock: Crypto Finance’s Innovative Crypto ETP Indices

In this interview, we delve into our two innovative crypto indices, the VCFWB3 and VCFMOM indices, developed by CF Asset Management in collaboration with Vinter, an industry leader in digital asset index provider services. These indices represent cutting-edge investment strategies in the rapidly evolving crypto market. The VCFWB3 index explores the Web 3.0 ecosystem, while the VCFMOM index leverages the momentum investment style while applying it to alternative data sets.

Interviewees: Can-Luca Köymen & Friedrich Herzog

Interview by Andrea Tarantini & Joshua Jankowitz

Crypto Finance Bitcoin Cycle Indicator

The Crypto Finance Bitcoin Cycle Indicator is designed to give guidance on where we stand in a bitcoin cycle. Das Hauptziel des Indikators besteht nicht in der Vorhersage von Preisen, sondern darin, als Analysewerkzeug zur Beurteilung der gegenwärtigen Zyklusphase zu dienen. This month’s reading is at the same level as last month, staying at above-average levels.

By Crypto Finance Asset Management team

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin and the entire crypto market are going up – is the situation similar to October 2020? What can we expect in 2024? The weekly chart of BTC/USD looks promising: the big correction from the peak above USD 65,000 to the trough around USD 15,000 lasted 12 months and ended in January 2023. Since then, the market has recovered and is expected to continue its upward trend. It seems to only be a matter of time before we test the old highs. BTC/USD, trading around USD 44,000, was expected to consolidate after its surge to USD 35,000. This was not a retracement or sideways pattern, but rather a slowing of the pace as volatility increased, allowing buyers and sellers to change hands. Finally, the acceleration resumed, breaking our price projection at around USD 37,500 and later USD 40,000. The market dynamics are quite strong – and we expect a continuation of the current trend, but with higher volatility. The long-term RSI model has been long while the RSI has consolidated above trigger level at 53. The relative strength of ETH vs. BTC has accelerated again in favour of BTC. And there is still no indication of a reversal.

By Michael Zbinden

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All information in this document is provided for general information purposes only and with no warranty or liability for accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose. No information provided in this document constitutes or is intended as investment advice. This document is not, and is not intended as, an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to invest in financial instruments including crypto assets. Crypto Finance is a financial group supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA on a consolidated basis with Crypto Finance AG as a securities firm and Crypto Finance (Asset Management) AG as an asset manager for collective investments with the corresponding FINMA licenses. This document and its content including any brand names, logos, designs, and trademarks, and all related rights, are the property of the Crypto Finance Group and Deutsche Börse Group. They may not be reproduced or reused without their prior consent.

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